Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month
Heisy replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
End of the icon doesn’t look terrible. That northern piece would beat out the cutoff. FWIW . -
It’s going to basically be the same as 12z I didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now… If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh .
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It’s rolling on wxbell now .
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I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy? .
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Correct, the difference was around the time period the euro left energy behind and timed the northern stream with the little wave that was able to escape. Haven’t seen the Ai but I assume it did something like the CMC .
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12z euro vs 6z euro Ai… pretty close. Looks like some energy got left behind on the 12z. Timing of that northern stream wave isn’t good on the OP .
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CMC looks very close to the Ai but no confluence .
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GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look. .
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Can’t hate where this was potentially headed. Need the northern stream to beat out the ULl to provide extra cold shot .
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Holy smokes .
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6z out? .
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Yeah HM gave a subtle March hint on our discord last night ha. 6z euro at 144 has a better northern stream push, same with EPS. It’s just a waiting game to see how the models handle the southern stream cutoff. .
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Models will be all over the place with a cutoff like this, varying speeds etc. need to get lucky with timing. Hopefully we can! .
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Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event .
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Fine by me personally, way too far out, it has a storm that’s all I care about .
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End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, @mitchnick, I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball .
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Just saw the Ai, yea Mitch that’s really close to what we want to see .
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12z euro was really close with the bowling ball, needed a better timed TPV push .
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End of icon looks somewhat similar to the Ai, models will probably eventually bring the bowling ball East. We just will need the N/S and confluence to cooperate .
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The Ai has been consistently showing that ULL bowling ball head East for 2+ days now. Other models are a little stronger with the N/S push out ahead and all vary with that ULL. Hopefully we can balance both ha. .
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Yea second event id like the bowling ball to slow down allow the northern stream to push ahead, long way out, but once again amazing consistency. This would be one helluva achievement for the Ai to nail that look 13+ days out .
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That Euro Ai run is classic bowling ball, way too far out obviously, but I’d rather that northern confluence beat out the ULL. If the ULL is fast it’ll be rain storm since you won’t allow any HP to build in. .
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What’s good is that almost all the models have the cutoff, just gotta see how it evolves from there .
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12z EPS didn’t update on wxbell for me so can’t tell how interested they are for that first event .
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12z euro has both events the Ai has been advertising .
