Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after? .
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Here is, in my opinion, one of the big pattern keys to keep an eye on. Going to use the GFS as an example. Look at yesterday’s 18z gfs. It cut off the pac energy and retrograded it west under the building epo ridge out west Now, the newer run still building an -EPO ridge, but they’re also bringing that pac energy east which temporarily boosts the SE ridge. If this ends up happening we may have to wait another 7-10 days to let the -EPO work its magic .
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There ya go Ji, you can sleep tonight .
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Uptick in fantasy events today, 12z euro was so close to something crazy that run. Take away from today’s runs is that Jan 6-10+ has legit potential. .
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Garbage model, but it’s fun to look at. Roll that forward a few days .
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I honestly feel like there is a chance for a big dog in January. First time in a while I’ve felt that way. All the normal caveats apply, but the fact that we’ve had winter storms on the EC this year, I got 5” event mid Dec already. Pattern aside, I just feel like this might be the time. .
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Yea, as always we gotta get lucky, but the pattern looks good. Just gotta see how the pac energy ends up shaking out. .
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00z ai and 6z ai to a degree as well. Starting to see fantasy events being spit out in LR OP models. The Jan 6-10 frame has me excited personally .
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Gfs and euro are trending closer for that day 6 wave. It’s very synoptically similar to the mid December event. Year of the clipper continues? .
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Insane radar sig right now, jealous AF .
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Talk about a thump, would love to be up that way right now! .
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Noticed this a few times this year, think it’s some glitch, error, or something. Look at this precip output, ridiculous. .
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Sometimes I wonder if I died a few years ago and this is purgatory. Last week’s 5” snow event was just enough to keep me from questioning reality. I bet if I go back through my screen shots I can find this same ridge bridge pattern over the last 3-4 years. .
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Yeah that’s a split flow, we’ll see if it has legs as we get closer. .
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5.5 Feasterville-Trevose .
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Deathband forming in Jersey, rock on .
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I just measured im nearing 4” surprisingly on cold surfaces. This band is delivering. Probably end up with 5+ .
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Haven’t looked at in the short term, but it was basically the first model to have this event, so gotta give it credit there. This band is pretty sweet .
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I had about 2” in Feasterville-trevose around 5am. My guess is we end up right around 4”, puking right now .
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From the 00z hrrr, that area I posted above is one of the max spots, and then towards coastal NJ which will have some coastal influence. Maybe 8 is too generous, but I think someone in those areas will see 6+ for sure. Good storm for many though. .
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This area here where the precip is sprouting is likely to see 6-8”, one of the jackpot zones imo .
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Someone in Lancaster or Berks C will hit 7-8” I bet. Philly around 4-5” my last call .
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At work, anyone got the 18z euro? .
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Good bump on 6z euro and EPS. I’d set the over under for Philly at 3” .
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It’s a shame the pattern isn’t less* progressive because that shortwave is really mean. Really close to a large event for coastal sections. The euro 12/00z runs are flopping with its 6/18z runs. I imagine it’ll probably settle into something over next 24 -36 hours .
