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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Which is certainly possible. Every model is trending East and faster it seems.
  2. Heisy
    There’s not enough spacing here. Yeah you could see it trend closer to the coast, but I don’t see any chances for some kind of major trend. At least one model would be showing a hit with it if there was potential at this range in my opinion.
  3. Heisy
    I think if we cash we would need a situation where the northern stream races ahead and lays down some fresh cold air with a light rain event for a follow up wave. Can get a solid hit with an active pattern that way.
  4. Heisy
    I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly
  5. Heisy
    00z icon still looks like it’s going to be amped like 18z...we’ll see. A lot has to do with the tilt of the ULL obviously. 00z NAM, GFS much more neutral and positive until too late.
  6. Heisy
    I don’t pay attention too much to records, but it seems all we ever see are record highs. Record lows only come in spurts it seems like a night or day. When is the last month during a cold season where the month was near top 5 or even 10 record low?
  7. Heisy
    Yep I really don’t take any value in Long range euro runs anymore.
  8. Heisy
    Awesome thanks for the info had no clue. If we get some model agreement by 12z tomorrow on something similar to a 18z EURO or NAM situation then I’m contemplating a road trip. I hate making trips though where storm precip type and track are in question.
  9. Heisy
    There’s likely a brief warmup before the next cold intrusion mid month. Question is if we can get blocking
  10. Heisy
    Yes sir. Track so far looks about a perfect a balance you can get for this storm. Colder confluence push, obviously the NAM though, but a nice trend towards euro
  11. Heisy
    Yeah gotta hope we see some consistency with that look from the 6z GfS because that’s a damn nice looking block. Models are going to vary though a lot until they get a good hold in this next event
  12. Heisy
    True, but we still can’t discount the idea of a weak wave since it has support and the EUROs medium skill just seems crappy anymore.
  13. Heisy
    Hey I’m in the Philly area, I’ve been on a few winter storm chased myself and looking for someone to go with. Help cut down expenses. Hoping this storm is strong enough to and East enough to maybe chase to the Poconos. PM me if looking to chase this storm or any storm in future. Covid makes it tough obviously.
  14. Heisy
    I wonder if we’ll ever get a sustained west based AO block or even a normal block. Feels like it’s impossible anymore.
  15. Heisy
    I like this description. In my years of looking at the wx models I’ve always been torn on whether each model run should be viewed as a separate entity or if trends actually exist, and like you just said I’ve always this feeling sometimes they’re almost trying balance things even though I couldn’t put my finger on it.
  16. Heisy
    Exactly. The cmc had this idea last night which is what the euro shows now. Models are having an extremely extremely tough time on how much energy gets left behind on the southern stream and how far south the northern branch drops. I swear each run every model is changing drastically
  17. Heisy
    Small tidbit but the 12z UKIE 144hr had that northern branch piece in the same spot the 00z Canadian did at same time. Wonder if it would have played out the same and if it’s a signal it’s not crazy. Curious how the 00z will look, and of course the euro.
  18. Heisy
    Hmm well I don’t smoke weed & I worked at a casino for 4 years so can pass any background check, where do I apply?!
  19. Heisy
    Phineas you better have an open guest room for rent for a chase! You basically fulfilled my dream. Since high school I wanted to move from Philly to NE for snow purposes of course. Very jealous. models tend to have issues with northern branch phases. Plus there’s going to be issues with how much energy is left behind from the first (2nd event) down south so a lot is going to change
  20. Heisy
    Check out the 00z Canadian for an even wilder scenario, snowstorm from Philly to Maine, and an absolute monster for the NW crew
  21. Heisy
    I don’t have precip maps yet but cmc 500 track had to be a beast for you guys...way different look this run
  22. Heisy
    Whoa, check out the CMC @ 174 hrs...looks like it’s diving the northern branch down big time
  23. Heisy
    Yeah, I believe this was the 2nd part of the first part that busted down in DC. Think the low slowed down and got captured. I know because my dumbass storm chased to VA instead of waiting a day or 2 and storm chasing up SNE, one of my major life regrets lol.
  24. Heisy
    Man you guys are really down on this winter. I could care less about the winter as a whole. Give me one 12+ storm and it’s lights out. Though, I still think this winter exceeds expectations, and by a lot.
  25. Heisy
    Yes sir. Maybe one day right? At least something closer that I could chase is Lake effect snow. I went to college SW of Pitt at Cal U. They would get lake effect snow showers, but nothing like lake adjacent locals. I’d love to experience a 2-3 day 3 foot type event.
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