Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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It’s wrong for the city. Maybe some snow in the normal elevated burbs, butbIt’s showing snow with temps above freezing at 925 etc
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50/50 didn’t seem as strong as 12z on the 18z euro & and eps, but the main shortwave was slightly more positively tilted
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It’s all downhill from here on that run lmao
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Yeah that’s amateur stuff, but we all gotta admit when we first got hooked on this hobby we did the same thing lol.
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I’d prefer not to have to chase this one, but if there’s a foot forecasted in less than a 7 hour drive count me in.
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Idk about you guys, but I enjoy the tracking and model watching sometimes even more than the damn events themselves. So yeah, I’m already set for 12z
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Stormvistas snowmap way less since it’s probably more realistic with temps, but well see could trend better
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18z EPS looks real nice at H5 @ 144 fwiw
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You can still get thumps, but I agree for major snows that is where you want it with hybrids.
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Dave what do you think about this first storm for early week sneaking up on a few people? Cold air an issue, but maybe people on the fringe of the precip could do well.
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We saw how the last NE storm trended... more and more energy was held back and phasing occurred...this is a possibility here as well. Icon, while warm, has been steadfast in showing a quick hitting storm....rgem 18z out of its range but at 84 looked really juicy. It does look like the mean is being a bit skewed by a few members though
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18z icon looked jacked up at 120 hrs hotdog.jpg
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Stormvista was too and it’s similar to weatherbell fwiw -
Yeah true, still if I only have to chase to the poconos that’s fine by me haha...regardless 6z Eps best run of the winter on a pure threat basis so far
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Haha I want to go back to my original username, icez, but I forget how to change usernames. 6z Eps should be interesting with those changes at H5
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At 90 hours there’s almost a phase on the 6z euro while the 00z euro had the 2 branches well apart. 12z could be very interesting if this trend continues. I’m a bit low confidence on cold air being available for coastal plain on the mid week storm, but the end of the week storm different story maybe.
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6z euro at 90 hours is more robust with that follow up event. It is also diving the northern branch farther south which could end up phasing. Imo the stronger this first event trends the better cold air in place for the day 7 event.
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Yeah on a OP model 7 days out...we have a block and a potential 50/50. This is the best setup of the season so far. It actually has the ingredients. It could end up rain, but I think it trends colder and farther south right now. Could be dead wrong but we’ll see. Regardless, first legit winter storm to track imo.
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You also get the 6z 18z euro which pivotal doesn’t have yet. I love stormvistas interface for some reason. Images load faster etc
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I believe with the block and the 50/50 low this storm will trend farther south as we move closer. Aka it will be colder. Think this is the first philly to Boston storm of the year. Well see
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Big 50/50 type low on GFS at 150 hrs with a beautiful Block. It’s forcing the storm to continue to dig southward.
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Icon gets real close with the follow up wave and looks very nice so far for the LR storm.
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Jesus lol. Gotta wonder what the H5 charts looked like to allow something like that to occur.
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I actually texted Ji on AIM the night of the December 30 event around like 3am. Don’t ask me why I remember this, but he was depressed at the fact that there were clear skies at DC. I was up all night watching the radar. Fell asleep thinking we were screwed. Of course I fell asleep right as it started.
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I sometimes wonder what radar looked for certain events. 1888 comes to mind. Probably would have looked like a hurricane coming on shore.
