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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    GEFS vs 18z, that’s not what we want to see at 50/50 region .
  2. Heisy
    The 18z eps didn’t look like it trended the right way with the potential 50/50 so my hopes aren’t that high, but I’m with you. Buy me a window seat .
  3. Heisy
    Gfs vs 12z euro, still way different. Not encouraged that the cmc and icon look more like the GFS. Maybe the euro caves tonight? .
  4. Heisy
    Remember it could always be worst, check out the difference on the snow map for this event just 3 days out lol .
  5. Heisy
    Early on, for better or worse there gonna be some changes on the GFS .
  6. Heisy
    18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal… Here is 18z eps as well .
  7. Heisy
    My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us .
  8. Heisy
    18z gfs Gfs vs euro around day 5, a lot to iron out .
  9. Heisy
    One minor detail I noticed. I’m a sicko and like to compare “good” outcome runs “bad” outcome runs for snow. Today what I noticed is that the model runs that are better for us tend to have these two shortwaves phasing better. The farther apart these two the worst the outcome ends up being for our region fwiw. .
  10. Heisy
    Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps .
  11. Heisy
    Yea I think there mores of northern stream redeveloper threat around the 20th. Eps not really on that today, but GEFS was… .
  12. Heisy
    It does look at the moment that there might be a pattern relaxation beyond the 22-23rd. Hopefully we’re able to take advantage during these two time frames .
  13. Heisy
    Not sure anyone noticed, but last nights euro and todays had freezing rain for our regions. Guess the cold dome is strong enough .
  14. Heisy
    Only thing I’m not happy about right now is it does seem like the models are sending us the faint signal they like C PA up thru interior NE. Ignore the amount, just the placement. .
  15. Heisy
    Exactly, this isn’t a snowstorm without that 50/50 trending in better spot/stronger. Unless the main wave ends up being really really flat and we just get snow showers/light snow. Any deep trough with that TPV position neeeds a 50/50. .
  16. Heisy
    This storm relies a lot on what happens to that streamer around the 14th. It ends up turning into our 50/50. We need that to trend stronger .
  17. Heisy
    Can see it even better on the OP. Piece of the TPV pinched off into a 50/50. This was critical. See that trend continue at 12z? Woof .
  18. Heisy
    I know I’ll sound like a weenie, but if we see this trend continue in 50/50 land (look at the improvement in Lower heights in this area 00z eps vs 12z ) this event has historic potential with the amount of energy diving SE. if you get a mechanism to hold down the LP off the coast wow… .
  19. Heisy
    If we can get a piece of the TPV to break off into 50/50 land and see that trend progress the 16-17th event could be a huge one. .
  20. Heisy
    The trend this year seems to be really good 00z runs and horrid 12z runs. Man I really hope we see that trend at 50/50 as we progress next few days .
  21. Heisy
    Euro loves to give HECS when everyone is sleeping .
  22. Heisy
    I need to change my pants, time for bed .
  23. Heisy
    WTH is it trying to do here lol… Looks like a 1960s snow map See how we got some tpv energy left over in 50/50 lane, that saved us .
  24. Heisy
    Maybe I got a little too excited, HECs for interior, solid for us, just a little flatter with slightly better tpv position and we are in line .
  25. Heisy
    Euro about to be a HECS I think .
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