Heisy

Haha maybe. The years kind of blend together. It might have been another Millville username who knows. Thanks man. I personally think center city philly ends up with around 5-6” NE 6-8”. Excited for a semi local chase though!

Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward?

I’d be very careful with the GFS. Not that I’m trying to be a Debbie downer, but almost always its surface reflection lags behind the upper levels. Still I think the answer lies somewhere in between guidance

Low seems to get up to just SE of cape may and then shoots literally due east from there between 78-87 hours

That’s what surprised me, but in SV you see why since ULL gets more tucked it slows down we get the back end. Idk if it’s counting sleet as snow though so no clue.

Wouldn’t sweat it. If by 00z tomorrow all the models show this then it’s time to write off philly getting more than 8. Even with this run though philly manages some front and back end i believe

Yeah kind of has more wrap around though. Not the solution you want for philly. Even the Max axis is pushed into NAM world

I love ellipses for...some reason lol

Exactly. You’ll likely only see those ratios where the best lift is and then the qpf is overdone and we’re at best talking 11-12/1...years ago I’d be telling my friends 30-40 is coming to E PA but I’ve learned through the years what actually happens when you account modeling issues. Philly is also going to have shit ratios if they get in that subsidence region. ..I think the snow early on will fall heavy in philly, then the best lift shoots to the NW and lighter precip will kind of be stuck over the city. It’ll be snow most likely, but 5-10 for philly is the best call right now. What you need to do is look for clues in the modeling a

Models always overdo qpf. I’ll let the pros answer, idk I just don’t see the duration with this one to hit 30.

Because the snow maps are likely wrong away from the deformation zone. I put 5 just in case mixing gets to city, and 10 if it doesn’t. It’s also based on history of how these storms play out

This doesn’t have the duration or strength even close to either of them. The qpf maps will be too Juiced. I’m excited too, but I think 24” Max is where expectations should be.

Yeah but you have to be realistic too. This isn’t a monster closed off ULL. I think the Max well see from whoever jackpots is like 24” but I could be wrong

It does seem slower though too when compared to the cmc for example

That looks good I think I agree that looks perfect in my eyes. On precip maps va getting crushes on that frame

Ukie at 72,looks good when compared to cmc for example. Not 100% sure since it seems slower as well

I’m chasing from Philly. I can’t turn down an hour drive to see 2 feet

I think tonight’s cmc is the most realistic outcome

Throw out the GFS. That isn’t happening. In fact if the snow map looks anything like tonight’s run I’ll video tape me running nude down broad street. Philly will be in that 5-10 range most likely. Their biggest issue will be subsidence/mix. In fact I’d venture to say the city will see heavier snow rates in the front end of the storm than during the peak. There’s going to Be many jealous posters on here most likely during Wednesday night. Not that 5-10 is bad at all lol. Just sayin

Gfs is a joke. I live in philly you’d think I’d be happy. I’d rather it be the other way around. All I care about is the NAM within 36 hours and the euro. I look at other models for amusement.

Yeah december 30 2000 in Washington DC lol. Though it was a different model back then

I think it’s the bias of placing lows too far SE. idk why you guys are even worried tbh. I’d rather be in Boston than philly right now by a long shot.

Black and white maps of cmc look even more intense with H5

I mean not really, the euro crushed us at 18z with close to 15-20” . If you mean the Max zone then yeah

Agreed. What a waste of a storm. Can’t even enjoy any good NAM runs, next!