Heisy

I think GFS is gonna be a big improvement vs 6z based on what I’m seeing early. Watch GFS become our snowiest model by the end of the day

Better TPV press so far vs 6z .

Using the icon as an example of what we want to see. That right shortwave we want to press on farther E and have our main low develop from the trailer. If it develops a low on the lead wave like the icon does that won’t work for us for the most part .

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Exactly, that’s why the 6z run is pretty startling to me. We’re at that range still where we can still see large evolution shifts. Was it a blip? And remember it doesn’t really match up with EPS timing because if the control was right the trailer wave lags another day behind which would extend beyond 144 hours. You have the EPS dumping snow on us by 144 yet the control is still developing the low so there’s a big discrepancy here. 12z is gonna be mighty interesting All I know is if you want a big snowstorm in VA etc,root for that control scenario Edit: just about every scenario still on the table, and we can still snow with other evolutions as well, I was just very surprised to see that control run. Offers a new possibility

Control is just the OP run at lower resolution. Like here is last nights 00z comparison. I expect 12z to throw in some wrinkles Edit: woops I posted different hours but you get the idea .

Yes, what the control is doing is exactly what you’d want for a MECS for the SE/Midsantic. and what’s interesting is the OP and control are generally exactly the same up to day 6-7. Check out prior runs H5 is mirrored every run. 12z should be really interesting. Wonder if that perks Psuhoffman up .

Control has a way different evolution than 00z. This was gonna be interesting to say the least .

Here’s the “skip” on the cmc as well. We need that second low to develop faster and closer to the coast, like the euro or better .

The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever. So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours. 6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situations You see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible. .

If we get this under 72 hours I want Randy to host a radio show. I miss those days .

Can see the jet backed up a touch, not that it matters much either way we’ll have a 00z run soon enough .

I think it was going to be much stronger event farther S. Like possible develop in time to snow farther S, not necessarily N .

Control at 132, this looks like a major storm developing .

My guess thru 120 is EPS would come in a touch less amped. Main wave touch farther E .

Eps rolling now we’ll have a good idea at its end range how the storm would have ended up .

Lol at me saying 5 minutes before the run to probably expect an out to sea run or 2. This is absolutely fine. It’s the GFS’ cave run. Get the trailer wave backed up a little farther W in future runs and we good. The GFS doing this just gives more credit towards euro camp. Cya all at 00z .

12z gfs was much faster because it was still in the middle of deciding between which wave to focus on. 18z is much more aligned with icon/euro progression . Trailer wave now gaining traction at this hour, it’s a bit farther E than Euro though so this might be out to sea but I’m happy about the GFS caving to that progression .

Can tell the GFS has morphed itself into the trailer wave idea as well, the trough is much farther backed up W vs prior runs. Timing will be more like euro .

Yea, and the type of system this is evolving into is also very reliant on timing. I could see the GFS squash everything to the SE for a suite or 2 wouldn’t be shocked if that happened. Probably be a good thing. We want the EPS to stay the course and improve though .

Yeppers, I didn’t foresee that possibility until I noticed the 6z eps/control hint at it. It allows the Front running wave to press the cold a little better. Then question becomes how much drag does the trailer wave have. If you noticed, the 12z euro actually missed a phase down south. Wonder if that would have been better or worst for us though. .

18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities .

Fan of the icon at the end of its run. In fact I bet that would have lead to very euro like solution if it went beyond 120, happy hour time . Almost looks identical to euro

Right where we want it… .

Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip. Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic. .