Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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I’d be out on this one for Ne and even down to my area in Philly. I’d focus on the 12th right now imo. Unless we see models change that lobe position it’ll be tough for it to come north
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It doesn’t magically appear. It originates from the same shortwave the main ULL does. Go back to the beginning of the run and watch progression. It breaks off from the energy coming onshore
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That vort you guys talking about actually originates from the same shortwave that the main ULL does. It breaks off once it hits the Pac coast. Then it eventually crosses Canada and is forced south by the 50/50. Our shortwave will be onshore by 18z today so hopefully the 18z runs look good
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Here is 6z euro. Look at how that little lobe almost becomes an extension of the 50/50 and squashes the flow east. Right now euro and gfs consistent with showing that, but Ukie and cmc don’t really have that feature. Since a phase doesn’t seem likely root for that feature to be as for north or non existent as possible.
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Hurts you’re killing me bro (idk how to feel)
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Curious, what does the control do for the 12th?
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Eagles fan obviously, if hurts win this game for us I’ll jump off the Walt Whitman. We need a WR in the draft baaasd
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We all know you’ll be on the first flight back if a big one is coming
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Eps looks solid for 12th. Because of what Ji said, if we lost we can get as high as a 3rd pick in a really good draft. If we win we can fall to as low as 10
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Jackpot winner on euro run Louisiana lmao
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Agreed, but never doubt backups playing for next years contract lol. I wish we would start Sudfield. I got my 76ers anyway. ralph I’m surprised the ensembles don’t interest you... this is earlier run but that’s a good signal
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Eagles are resting everyone. If you guys don’t beat us you don’t deserve a team
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The real wildcard is the rogue vort over se Canada that splits off and then rotates south. All the models had that piece today except the Ukie. It can go extremely well like the para and you get a full on phase, or crappy like cmc and euro where it’s late and kind of slingshots it east. We’re 6 days out right now. No where close to a solution
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6z gefs had a very nice improvement
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Looking beyond the 8th...Can’t really ask for a better signal here. Obviously you hope the timing/strength/placement works out, but this is about as good as it gets at this range:
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This was close to the first pure weenie runs of the new pattern. Hopefully euro comes a bit on board tonight
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Needed a little bit more confluence with that New England wave, but that was a HECS signal
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Meanwhile the para is trying to do a March 2001 scenario lol (ULL dropping down from east Canada and phasing, you don’t see that often)
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Kind of has qualities of a late March bowling system where you only would see snowfall in the heavy ccb region.
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I agree. Would be nice to have something diving down to at least tug it north a tad, you can see it does do that but not until it’s off the coast
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It’s hard to know, but the Ukie could be in a good spot here. Trough is neutral and going negative it seems. Just throwing it out there. It does seem a little cutoff from the flow so idk how north it would go. I can’t decide if it’s good or not lol
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Trough goes negative slightly too late. If we had that northern energy start to drop South a bit sooner or if the shortwave negatively tilted a bit sooner would have been nice. with bowling ball events like this the models are going to have an extremely tough time. I wouldn’t worry one way or another until we get it to 96 hours... better news is both cmc and gfs have really good patterns after this one on today’s runs.
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6z para is a different story in the LR for now. I would never look at the OP gfs. Idk why but it seems a lot of excitement on wx forums doesn’t start until the LR gfs shows a hit, but it’s a horrific model. Stick to the ensembles. Not telling you to be unrealistic but we need some more patience. If we get to feb without a few inches yeah maybe start to get concerned
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EPS looks fine to me. There could be a relaxation, but pac improves. Rememver our pattern change wasn’t until after this potential event. This would just be icing on the cake. Still forever to go. I’d favor maybe the southeast and mid Atlantic right now. Think euro OP didn’t have a ton of support who knows
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Please don’t ban me. Lol... The model lead up before this was pretty epic. A damn shame. Do you remember me texting you on AIM the night before the storm after the ETA went east? Think my messanger name was b35jnelley but idk haha. Don’t ask me why I remember that this storm is very nostalgic for me it was when I first got into wx.
