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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    the tpv placement on the cmc allows for it to phase once offshore, this actually has effects on the pattern post the event. CMC has a great setup at the end of its run because of this. It has another snow event on the 1st
  2. Heisy
    Yeah the positive tilt of annoyance. So close to a MECS
  3. Heisy
    Note, like I said gfs and cmc differ on placement of tpv.
  4. Heisy
  5. Heisy
    trying to post cmc pics, but its a big hit
  6. Heisy
    CMC and GFS differ greatly on placement of that little tpv lobe in canada fwiw.
  7. Heisy
    whoa
  8. Heisy
    This looks pretty good
  9. Heisy
    gfs might be better than its 6z run,. better heights ahead, of course it slowed down the first system so that might have an effect too, well see
  10. Heisy
    Id also love for the energy behind the 28th system to slow down. Let there be better ridging behind the system. It's in a sparse sampling region so hopefully that trends favorably as well.
  11. Heisy
    mentioned this yesterday, latitude latitude latitude, other factors of course, but good start on Icon. I have little hope here in philly, but would love to be able to chase to VA
  12. Heisy
    On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see
  13. Heisy
    I never thought I’d have to storm chase to friggin Dave Tolerris’a house this year. Gotta do what ya gotta do sometimes
  14. Heisy
    If we can get that ridge behind the 28th event slightly west we’re in business. If it can just neg tilt a little bit there should be some good precip nw of the shortwave, there’s a lot of ridging in front of it too but the hp saves us.
  15. Heisy
    Haha every time a model spits out decent snow it doesn’t have to be compared to 96 fellas....was 79 pd1 I’m blanking out. Was it that small angry small closed off ULL that crushed dc? If so yeah it has more similarities to that.
  16. Heisy
    Gfs also shifted that Tpv westward in Canada. Ukie Looked decent at 144
  17. Heisy
    6z euro vs 00z. Looks like a touch more ridging & a slightly stronger main wave
  18. Heisy
    I’m a painter but I say screw it. I end up refreshing the gfs and euro after every roll and brush stroke.
  19. Heisy
    The isobars are more sheared out around the L and you can see the secondary forming quicker, but idk if that’s a product of a faster shortwave or not. There does seem to be less HP wedging into Ne though.
  20. Heisy
    This run was a lot different in SE Canada vs 00z
  21. Heisy
    It’s been too far north recently at this range so I wouldn’t sweat it that much, concerns are valid. Let’s hope a good euro run
  22. Heisy
    Farther N, but not as bad as the crazy 00z run
  23. Heisy
    You said it earlier for this one, For dc you really need the right balance of the wave being strong enough but not gaining too much latitude because there really isn’t much cad ahead. Now the 29th event has a much better cad look because you already have NS confluence ahead of it, but that one has issues with being strong enough with a fast flow behind it. I’m just as frustrated here in philly. I expect the euro to Come north but my guess is not as much as Ukie or cmc.
  24. Heisy
    This looks like it would favor NE as we head into feb/March...
  25. Heisy
    Hopefully we get to call it baby snowmageddon or junior? I’m in Philly but I’d def chase to W VA if euro is right. This H5 of feb 3 2010 but you can see the storm forming in southwest just like this one. Good point on the nino stj. Night. Hopefully another good day tomorrow.
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