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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Yep, I think it has hit every province in Canada over the last few days of model runs lol
  2. Heisy
    I’ll be all set for mid feb if we can dc to get like 4-8, and like 2-4 here in philly out of this one
  3. Heisy
    Yea there’s more energy rounding the base of the shortwave. This may have not been north but probably would of had a storm develop faster
  4. Heisy
    12 vs 18z euro
  5. Heisy
    Per shams
  6. Heisy
    It looks like the 50/50 influence is trending weaker, but that tpv lobe has obviously pressed SE. idk how much it plays a role though since the main ULL is closed off and cut off a bit anyway.
  7. Heisy
    We need a wx woj bomb.
  8. Heisy
    I think recent verification scores (per source, woj) have the 12z gfs at day 5 behind the JMA FYI. Sad. Once again doesn’t mean the gfs is wrong. I like how it’s trending for you guys, up here in Philly best chance is for the ULL to spit out some flakes, but I’m rooting for you guys cause I’d gladly chase a strong coastal.
  9. Heisy
    Honestly this gives me more hope for Thursday. Euro has been terrible with this event too
  10. Heisy
    Pivotal is updating now since 00z last nught
  11. Heisy
    OP gfs actually has -epo form briefly, so block is still trying to Reform too so after a brief relaxation we get a decent pattern setting up after a huge storm in the 300 hr range
  12. Heisy
    Ukie actually has a storm this run lol. It’s still east, but a trend
  13. Heisy
    I’ve learned using Storm vista a while it likes to count sleet as snow, but it never counts snow if the surface temps are even .1 over 32 . You can see that on the mean here. Just pointing it out for other SV users.
  14. Heisy
    The 6z and 00z gfs would have had ptype issues too but they were just stronger, closed off earlier, and thus dynamics took over in the ccb much faster
  15. Heisy
    Thanks, to me it makes sense why we sometimes see the GFS kind of tick towards other models at times, and then it has one run where it completely caves on th overall progression of events. I’d wager good money the 12z gfs ticks south again, but I suppose the big money will be on the 00z run. This also happens to other models though too so there’s just so many factors well see
  16. Heisy
    I posted later, but I thoughtthe H5 was more organized early on, but turns out the confluence was worst from the lingering 50/50
  17. Heisy
    Would this explain trends to a certain degree?
  18. Heisy
    It’s not that simple as the above met posted, idk was just throwing it out there. Doesnt mean the gfs is wrong would like to have the euro/Ukie on board very soon Idk up here it was atrocious. Was way too south. So was the euro though at times. There were runs like 3 days out that had Philly getting the max snow with Bgm sniffing virga
  19. Heisy
    Tony, rain shadow. One of the best Philly Mets
  20. Heisy
    This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. “If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions. Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know”
  21. Heisy
    6z eps is a little better. Still nothing like GEFS but certainly an improvement
  22. Heisy
    6z vs 00z euro comparison fwiw , gif should work lmk if it isn’t.
  23. Heisy
    I kind of agree with the sentiment that we’ll see a meet in the middle type deal. If I can storm chase to you guys that would be awesome though!
  24. Heisy
    Incoming..This has to be good right psu?
  25. Heisy
    Yeah which is why I said I hate that model haha, it likes to torture us...I’ll take it more serious under 72 hours.
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