Heisy

Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small

Ohhh right right, I’m mixing up the years. Still remember Jan 25 that year but not much else. I left in the evening to a WWF event of all things and TWC saying storm is shifting west. Came home around 11 to a winter storm warning for 6-12 and tried staying awake for the first flakes...checking the radar at every 8 on the clock on the local forecast...such a dork haha. Of course I passed out, but caught the tail end of the heavy stuff before the dry slot.

It just seems we’ll never know the exact answer to that because there are just too many factors. Not only dealing with meteorological, but we have constant changing climate issues as well.

One of my favorite winters in Philly. If you’re talking about 00-01. It had an event pretty much every month. Just an exciting winter with the NAO in late December. Dec 30 still the first legit snowstorm I stayed up all night on wxforums. I remember speaking to Ji at like 2 in the AM he was depressed since the skies were clear with a winter storm warning lol.

Regardless if we've cashed in on anything yet, it is clear that we're getting off on the right foot with a bunch of threats to track. Beats the hell out of last year.

Does anyone have the 00z UKIE beyond 144? @ 144 itself it seems IMO to have the best setup out of all the models (6z GFS/GEFS def shifted S as well)...@ 144 on the UKIE there is also some energy in Canada that looks like it would dive out ahead of the main ULL, helping with confluence and shifting it Southward potentially.

If this 50/50 low ends up being legit and we see modeling strengthen it as we get closer it certainly wouldn't shock me to get some front end frozen even into the cities. We'll see if any other models hop on this idea as we get closer.

That little pivot around noon today should be real fun for a lot of you guys. Really jealous right now. You guys deserve it though. Closing in on an inch here in Philly. Btw, can I change my username to SaintNick or Folesadelphia?

As a Philadelphian the one recent now cast event that bumped N on the day of the event was the infamous Eagles - Lions snow game. That was supposed to be a DC event with flurries up here.

This one stings a little because it is generally a textbook look, but we had a few pesky things not go our way. Just a bunch of annoying short waves all over the place. I actually personally feel the 2nd shortwave that misses the phase hurts us by kicking everything East. It would really suck if this was like Late Feb Early March, but we aren’t even thru mid Dec, long way to go of course.

Wish I could afford a chase right now. Enjoy it.

We truly live in the golden age of snowstorms. Every year for the most part seems like the someone on the E.C. gets hit with a HECS sized storm. Could be a change in climate, or just noise with such a small sample size. Who knows, 25 years from now we could be telling our kids or grand kids that we lived in the most amazing time for snowstorms.

I doubt anyone will have sympathy for me, but check out how the first dryslot gets into Philly, and look at how the deformation band sets up just NW of the city while I'm high and dry. I still got like 18-20" or so, but could of had 30" if the storm was 25 miles S literally.

This was the 12z run on the 16th, this was the last run of the EURO that didn't show the storm. Then, here is the 00z 17th run, the first run that actually showed something resembling the final product

On another note it is kind of sick that I can remember individual model runs 6 years later. I am insane.

I vaguely remember this model run. Obviously it didn't come close to the final outcome, but just for kicks does anyone have the associated QPF chart that matched this 500mb model run. That is the sickest thing I've ever seen I have to imagine it gave someone like 40-50" lol.

I've always read about PDI on these forums, but can you guys explain to me what made that storm so epic. I think I read that it was also a surprise storm, which obviously makes sense since it took plce in the late 70s

I have an eerily similar story here in Philadelphia, which is why Jan 25 2000 will always have a special place in my heart. The morning of I remember the news saying maybe an inch or so. I was in the infant stages of my weather obsession. That day I stayed home from school I believe. Not sure if it was a weekend or what, either way....My family got tickets to the 76ers Trailblazers game that night. That was in the prime A.I days so a 76ers Blazers game was a hot ticket. The Blazers were also amazing back then....Right before we left for the game I remember Paul Kocin came on the TV and said new data coming in was looking interesting...I could also see the beginning stages of the radar out in the Atlantic making a bee-line for our area. I had that giddy feeling you get before a storm before my family and I left for the game. Pretty sure the 76ers won, on my way home I just had that feeling that something was in the air. When we got inside I rushed to the TV and put the Weather Channel on. I see at the bottom of the screen the epic red bar that said Winter Storm Warning for what I believe was 8-14" of snow. I was in absolute heaven. I laid in bed glued to the weather channel until like 5am when I passed out....I woke up around 7 am to a pure whiteout with 6-8" of snow on the ground. It snowed like that for another hour before we dry slotted. We got some snow on the back end, but finished with like 9-11", nothing "epic", but I'll never forget that storm because of the surprise factor.

So far have like 3-5" can't tell, but haven't really had heavy snow. The snow flakes seem very small. Hoping we can get a convective band tomorrow morning.

GFS big time east shift

00z NAM corrected itself from its ridiculous 18z run as we knew it would....

I'm unpacked and ready to go here in Mainsfield....Right before NEMO the NAM had a crazy run that brought even 12+" to Philly. It tends to do this right before events. It is probably well overdone. I'd imagine it will go NE at 00z.

I switched my reservation to Mansfield MA lets hope the EURO is righr

Urgent , i can switch my reservation mansfield instead would that be better?

How does Southborough MA do lol... Hour away!