Heisy

It’s an interesting setup. The H5 reminds me of a progression you’d see in March

CMC crushes you guys too. Slow moving ULL that just sits and spins from the effects of the block.

Icon has some front end I thought? I could only see surface temps and accum precip so was hard to tell what was going on. It’s a close call for you guys. Gfs and cmc nail New England. Philly does well on front end too. The backside of trough kind of rotates around the trough since the block just stops all movement. The way this year has trended its fine at this point. It’s a marginal setup but there is decent cold ahead, but the gradient is pretty far north. Well see, with how these two events have trended im happy just to be able to track another one. The chances of tomorrow quell the pain of today.

Yea the key is the remnants of Thursday’s storm and the tpv phasing into the 50/50. There’s no where for this ULl to go. It’s a classic front end, drizzle setup imo. As long as we don’t see some funky changes on how the western energy comes east id bet we see some good runs tonight

Thanks for info, but can you elaborate on that? Single system as in one model?

00z icon is gonna be a nice hit day 7 . Don’t have H5 yet but looking at temps and precip looks fine

That’s a really sweet gefs run for the 2nd. Long way to figure out how that energy comes out of the west, but we take. I want another noreaster to chase

Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East.

Ji. JMA looks decent at the end of its run.

Most of us on here aren’t meteorologists. We’re storm Enthusiasts....unless you’re completely new to this wx world every one of us knows not to go all in in situations like that. It’s just part of the fun. Hell, the 00z gfs run the other night was the most fun I had all winter lol. I obv knew it was at the extreme north side of guidance as I’m sure others did too. Relax with hurricane man. Why the hate?

It takes place outside of January 2021 so that’s a plus. Nice high pressure showing up. At least it’s something else to track.

Nice eps signal for that feb 2 system

12z euro is a big c pa hit between the 1st-3rd. Def a hint on the ensembles for a system in that time frame

Humming here I go again. Euro has a slow moving Miller a b type system. Meanders like a March ULL. But the remnants of Thursday’s system holds some cold in long enough

Euro is a yawner for most

Gfs continues the 1st2nd threat, and cmc looks like a decent setup here if secondary takes over

It looks like CMC ticked south too

It’s not, but the issue is this model was the farthest N, you’d prefer to see it kind of stick and stay and other guidance trend towards it

Sigh, this run will be a lot more progressive

I know it’s hard to get excited for Lr events this year, but last nights runs definitely added intrigue for the 1st-2nd. 00z euro: Eps, cmc ens, and gefs all look favorable for that time period as well.

Won’t have to wait that long either. Idk if anyone mentioned it but there’s a decent signal for a Miller b on the 1st- 2nd

Can someone post 114 from gefs? You guys looking solid.

For fun. NAM has the ULL pretty far north. I’ll take any good vibes I can get. Pretty healthy vort at 84.

I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian Whatever happens , last nights 00z gfs run was the best 20 minutes of the winter.