Heisy

Look how the wave near the dakotas backed up. That would allow for more phasing once it tries to turn the corner. On top of that the tpv press isn’t as strong .

Not a pro, but I’m a fan, think there’s better spacing with the TPV, our wave is backed up a bit, not pressing as far S. I wouldn’t guarantee it looks like GFS but I imagine it would be much better than 12z crap. Maybe like last nights 00z? We’ll see the control/eps less than an hour .

Nice pick for an analog. 18z euro thru 75, I like how the main vort has backed up a tick .

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It’s gonna be good .

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GEFS is gonna be a huge move from 12z… .

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So as things progressed, this may end up Tucking a bit more than 12z the trough axis is farther W .

This run is gonna be big, better confluence than 6z run and the main shortwave is gonna phase properly it seems… .

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Yea guess you’re right. I’d risk cmc inland vs this route lol .

Called it this morning, “watch gfs be snowiest model today” Look I was rooting for a different evolution, but I’d 1000% take cmc/Ukie/gfs over this crap. Let’s see what eps does. .

It’s also introducing a kicker wave in the NW which is no where to be found on any other model .

Euro all alone with this idea though so who knows .

This looks like a 6z control progression but spacing not gonna be enough .

Euro might be similar to 6z control with delayed wave .

My concern on full display off the 12z GEPS, If this the progression models are honing in on root the hell out of the 14th wave to trend stronger since there’s no other reinforcing cold shots Strong phase you’re basically boned in DC and Philly Do these maps all seem similar? Unfortunately… .

Oh, I’d take the GFS In a second. Try to explain what I meant…. Here are all 12z runs at 126 hours With this progression you play a dangerous game with how strong the wave can be. Can easily have a N trend in this setup as models tend to always have better phasing as we get closer. Us having snow vs rain just comes down to how strong/sharp the shortwave and trough are This progression…. You’d have absolutely no issues with cold as the second lead wave dampens the flow. It is what it is we’ll see I’d def not be upset with 4-7” of smoke .

I know on paper the GFS looks good, and this might sound confusing, but I personally am not a fan of the GFS or rest of todays 12z runs so far. I was hoping we’d see a trend towards the 6z control progression of clearing the front first and then developing a second low. The cmc/Ukie/icon/ gfs all have similar evolutions now, I’m just worried that we’re seeing the GFS colder/SE bias at play. If todays guidance so far is correct we’re basically limiting the ceiling here and seriously would have issues with temps being too warm. A control like progression would give us no worries for it being too amped and would give us a chance at an historic major event imo. We can still cash in on the current progression advertised, but meh. See what wrinkle euro throws in here shortly .

Cmc won’t be good as it emphasizes more of the lead wave, no separation probably way too warm but idk for sure based on B&W maps .

So we’re def not seeing separation like the 6z control, but this might still work out as a modest event .

But you can bet your butt I’ll overreact positively if they show big hits lol .

Agreed, just pointing it out, models are def not gonna have any kind of agreement today with those trailer waves and how/if they work out. So I wouldn’t panic one way or another regardless of what 12z does .