Jump to content

Heisy

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,030

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Yeah I’d put the NAM in gfs camp. It’s a lot faster than 12z euro is
  2. Heisy
    Is this a troll?
  3. Heisy
    This is the control run not a mean.
  4. Heisy
    That was more of a pure Miller B. Basically just bowling ball that dove southeast out of Canada. This one I’d say is Miller a/b
  5. Heisy
    I posted it last week when people got all excited about the gfs showing that mirage blizzard. The gfs is currently ranked dead last at 120 hours. It’ll slowly coave to the euro like it always does. I only personally ever use it at this range to verify that a storm is possible. Once under 84 hours it’s okay. The JMA has better verification statistically than the GFS at day 5
  6. Heisy
    Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification.
  7. Heisy
    You guys focus on cutters way too Often, you have to keep your eyes on the prize, aka post cutter fun
  8. Heisy
    It’s not. The old weenie rule though is when it’s amped that’s a good sign.
  9. Heisy
    Psu will feel a lot better about that 6z control/eps run. The PVA and heights were better aligned for a capture.
  10. Heisy
    Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows.
  11. Heisy
    Can you post an H5?
  12. Heisy
    This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.
  13. Heisy
    Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore.
  14. Heisy
    I recall the euro kept putting those insane amounts in N VA around 180 hours out. It may have had a run or 2 where it was south because I remember sitting here in Philly worrying about being fringed a few times, but over and over the signal was there for ccb snows in that region. Wasn’t until the NAM came in range that snow chances increased into Philly burbs and nyc...this is two euro runs in a row with a heavy area over N VA let’s start a trend
  15. Heisy
    I don’t like relying on that late capture. That’s a complicated setup and just slightly different timing we could go from this run to crap pretty fast. I love the potential though. It’s very March 58 esque down in VA
  16. Heisy
    The 12z JMA is an example of a euro type run without the late capture
  17. Heisy
    I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons
  18. Heisy
    Remember we are still many days away, and this run needed a late capture to really get going. I’m as excited as anyone but it could still be a miss but not be a gfs coup. You guys are in a good spot though idc where it hits I’ll chase! Just temper expectations right now too far out
  19. Heisy
    This is practically a carbon copy of March 58 farther south
  20. Heisy
    This storm relies on a complicated phase. You guys are in a great spot because WAA snow should hit you either way, but be careful tracking this one. Fasten your seatbelts. I just pray models are right with the phase job this is March 58 esque
  21. Heisy
    Heather A did a study where large east coast storms tend to form when there is a phase change from an ongoing pattern such as a -nao chanhgang to a positive etc. it’s not equivalent to Miller a or b
  22. Heisy
    There’s a met on the philly forum that has a rule about how it rarely snows unless the icon shows snow falling lol. It’s a good sign to have this model showing snow. The main takeaway from this run is there could be aN epic CCB somewhere.
  23. Heisy
    There’s nothing wrong with being excited while being cautious. There has never been a winter storm where we sat 6 days out and didn’t have worries over one aspect or another. The excitement comes from knowing that if things go optimally this event could be a ku.
  24. Heisy
    That 6z eps run was drool worthy. Looking at H5 and h7 that would have bombed and probably closed off in a really good spot for Mid atlantic
  25. Heisy
    Like forky stated earlier in this thread models continue to underestimate the blocks effects. Seems confluence is getting stronger each run. There’s even a New England streamer wave showing up On guidance (Ukie especially) Hopefully we get the right balance this time around. I’m more concerned atm for a messy evolution/south event than I am of inland.
×
×
  • Create New...