Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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I’ll take the Rgem, anything that shows south is a positive guys trust me.
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Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol
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Yeah it would be nice, however check out DTs latest video. He showed the snow it had forecasted for southeast earlier this week. In less than 3 runs it completely shifted from like nothing to a hit 1-2 days out. That model has burned me big time when chasing storms. I told myself after I didn’t go up to bgm that I will never not trust the EPS near game time, ever again. that being said, please come south NAM
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The first weenie ledge of my life. Was the first year I learned how to look at the models (AVN, EURO once a day, NGM, ETA etc) euro and eta backed off and sent it north but AVN kept hanging on. Since AVN out performed the ETA in the dec 30 2000 storm and the earlier December southeast event Mets hanged onto it to their doom.
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In my view 6z eps has less expansive precip than 00z up near pa N border and just increased inside the ccb
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Honestly never lol. Probably the model runs Monday 6z. I’ve storm chased enough storms to know there is never consensus until the storm is on top of us
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This setup is also slightly abnormal. Precip will explode over the region instead of developing farther south and expanding north. You can see that with the dry slot Over DE. If it forms too far N like NAM city is fooked for 12”, would be more like 4-8 From waa snows
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Yeah def some opportunity
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Eh, if you push that strong of a ccb band that far north there will be subsidence on the south side. I’m not complaining about the run verbatim, it just gets scary if you factor normal nw trend ticks we usually see
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It pushes the ccb north though, still at a range where could see it keep ticking N
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Look at that stinger from md up through poconos etc. that ccb needs to chill now though worried about further nw ticks
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If that ccb band pushes nw it’ll also push the mix line south of it at the height. Philly 6-12 is fair atm, burbs 10-20, we need to survive one more day of runs, if we’re good by 00z tonight let’s roll.
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Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol
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It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo.
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CMC wrap around is insane there’s flurries 1am Wednesday haha
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2016 vibes for city, fgen sets pivot nw could be an issue, still would do great though, but March 58 vibes west and northwest. Someone might hit 3 feet there if these trends continue. I will Be chasing anyway so Idc lol
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Very 2016esque vibes with the ccb band forming Nw on mesos.
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Epic euro run. It’s still snowing there at the end of the run. I’m all in
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My guess is if we see the euro go up, those maps will increase too -
For my northeast Philly first call, (i always do%s until game day) 40% 8-12 40% 4-8 10% <4 10% >12
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It’s never final consensus. I mean we’re at the stage where we can start talking about totals, but it’s still early. On our forum someone posted discussion back from 2016. Just 48 hours out the euro didn’t crush the nw Philly burbs and finally as the storm was literally starting it shifted N
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You got the indies and control?
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Just a heads up but HM on phillywx mentioned in a post last night saying ratios may actually not be good. He said it was too soon to say, but just throwing it out there. Has to do with the Fgen forcing etc I don’t want to copy his post without his permission though since it wasn’t a call just interesting discussion
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It kind of is similar to NAM with evolution where the h7 low is farther N once it spins near the coast you get the coastal ccb which rakes NJ
