Heisy

We saw how the last NE storm trended... more and more energy was held back and phasing occurred...this is a possibility here as well. Icon, while warm, has been steadfast in showing a quick hitting storm....rgem 18z out of its range but at 84 looked really juicy. It does look like the mean is being a bit skewed by a few members though

18z icon looked jacked up at 120 hrs hotdog.jpg

Stormvista was too and it’s similar to weatherbell fwiw

Yeah true, still if I only have to chase to the poconos that’s fine by me haha...regardless 6z Eps best run of the winter on a pure threat basis so far

Haha I want to go back to my original username, icez, but I forget how to change usernames. 6z Eps should be interesting with those changes at H5

At 90 hours there’s almost a phase on the 6z euro while the 00z euro had the 2 branches well apart. 12z could be very interesting if this trend continues. I’m a bit low confidence on cold air being available for coastal plain on the mid week storm, but the end of the week storm different story maybe.

6z euro at 90 hours is more robust with that follow up event. It is also diving the northern branch farther south which could end up phasing. Imo the stronger this first event trends the better cold air in place for the day 7 event.

Yeah on a OP model 7 days out...we have a block and a potential 50/50. This is the best setup of the season so far. It actually has the ingredients. It could end up rain, but I think it trends colder and farther south right now. Could be dead wrong but we’ll see. Regardless, first legit winter storm to track imo.

You also get the 6z 18z euro which pivotal doesn’t have yet. I love stormvistas interface for some reason. Images load faster etc

I believe with the block and the 50/50 low this storm will trend farther south as we move closer. Aka it will be colder. Think this is the first philly to Boston storm of the year. Well see

Big 50/50 type low on GFS at 150 hrs with a beautiful Block. It’s forcing the storm to continue to dig southward.

Icon gets real close with the follow up wave and looks very nice so far for the LR storm.

Jesus lol. Gotta wonder what the H5 charts looked like to allow something like that to occur.

I actually texted Ji on AIM the night of the December 30 event around like 3am. Don’t ask me why I remember this, but he was depressed at the fact that there were clear skies at DC. I was up all night watching the radar. Fell asleep thinking we were screwed. Of course I fell asleep right as it started.

I sometimes wonder what radar looked for certain events. 1888 comes to mind. Probably would have looked like a hurricane coming on shore.

Famartin has a nice winter storm archive but it’s just for NJ. Though it has all sorts of maps for a lot of storms since 94. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ here was 01’s H5 track. A really wacky capture.

Anyone know what happened to Arizwx? He was a classic for some reason I feel like he may have passed away, but not 100% sure. Where has Rob22 been? He was a phillY classic, I knew him in person in met school and lost touch.

Omg I have a post on that page you just linked...my original username is icez. I’m embarrassed to even read it lmao.

Feb 5 2001 was a nasty storm even down here. Went from heavy rain to a white out during rush hour. Kids stranded at schools and all sorts of accidents. Ranks up there with the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen.

You have no idea. I signed up on Wright weather and the weather channel forums (they were briefly a thing) in 2000. My first experience tracking was the dec 30 2000 storm, but 2001 will never be forgotten down here in philly. I didn’t look at weather models until the next year, but I remember reading it on the forums of how insane they were. I was 14 at the time, schools were cancelled for two days for no reason because the hype was so real and the AVN model kept showing snow and had done well during a few other storms during the season that some outlets, looking at you John Bolaris of NBc10, who still held onto 6-10 like the night before the main low (there were two Parts of that storm)... I remember joe bastardi’s crazy newsletter hyping it up, ji & nor’easter posting about it on wright weather, and unfortunately I remember the night the models suddenly swung northward. anyone remember gary grays website? This storm reminds me of reading his newsletter. I forget if that was his name. Man 2-3 days before the storm there was legit talks of 30-40” in philadelphia.

What a beautiful block towards the end of the run.

CMC ensembles agree with the OP, alright back to work!

12z JMA for ji of course. The LP doesn’t come from the best spot, but the signal is there. HP showing up in SE Canada is of course a big deal for us.

Yeah I’m not counting it out at this range. Just saying the idea for a crazy wrapped up ULL was most likely a bias coming into play. I’m really enthusiastic about the next few weeks.

144–Looks like euro is going to phase the northern piece too soon this run. There will be a storm though based on H5 but probably on the warmer side