Every year the gfs has events like this where it stands alone. It’s always wrong except for Boxing Day but that was 48 hours out Give it another run or 2 and it’ll be purged of whatever bad data the 12z run digested .
GEFs actually looks really good. Once in a great while gfs clues on on events like this. Gotta see one other model show something similar though before I buy though like I said. .