Heisy

Dont worry about specifics. You know that. It’s very encouraging. It can all go wrong and we can get screwed again of course, but I’m really happy with everything headed into January. All you can ask for at this stage. .

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Multiple runs in a row of the EuroAi showing this wave in the January 4-6 range. Keep expectations in check, but at least we have potential. I gotta reup weatherbell so here’s the pivotal map. .

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm Mother of god.jpg .

One of the better OP euro runs for the LR… Has a snow threat NYE and no ridge bridge .

CMC also looks better, .

Ridge rolls over too fast, we get some light stuff, but this evolution at least has a better shot at something vs the 00z/6z evolutions .

Solid improvements on the GFS, shortwave digging faster… .

12z icon looks very similar to 6z euro Ai Ridge position just unfortunately too far east. The shortwave does want to turn the corner, it’s just doing so too far east for us to get impacted outside inverted trough .

Been in this hobby for over 20 years. I’m 38, I was staying up the MRF, AVN, NGM model when I was high school lol. Models have gotten a lot better. Yeah if we’re talking about specifics yeah sure at this range it’s useless, but with today’s advancements we generally have a good idea if a winter storm is possible by day 7-8. We don’t see winter storms pop up out of no where like they did in the 2000s Last nights trend with the western ridge position etc favor a late blooming miller B. Euro AI has been fairly consistent showing that in its last few runs. Inverted trough/light snow certainly possibile, but that’s something that we won’t know until we get closer. Most, not all, but a lot of us are chasing the big dog. Big dogs usually show themselves by day 7. .

Right, but as cape just alluded this overall setup favors NE. We’ll see how it goes, just making an observation .

Euro AI was more of a late blooming miller B. 18z gfs likely a step towards a more realistic solution like that. The 12z H5 run as absurd. 1/10000 type look. It’s a Miller b setup, we know how these go… .

So there’s two waves, one on the 18-19th and then the follow up wave (the one the GFS blew up today and yesterday). We need spacing issues to resolve and models to really key on that second wave. Over the next 2 days I’d really like to see some other models jump on wave 2 idea. .

I’m personally meh. Not to sound all negative, but we got teased in the 10+ day LR all year the past 2-3 years. 00z took a baby step backward. When I see progress under 10 days I’ll get excited. The snow means on the ensembles are garbage as well. 1” mean thru 360 hours here in Philly from the 00z eps pretty much sums up what to expect over the next 15 days. December 2024 is toast imo. January could offer some hope though.

The 18z gfs run from yesterday was the evolution I was hoping the models would morph into. That basically lagged the main shortwave behind the front and it redeveloped. Of course the models went away from that idea overnight…. The depiction on the 18z euro isn’t ideal. Maybe we’d get some post frontal snow but there’s nothing out ahead of the low to knock temps down. .