calm_days

HRRR showing surprising trough interaction; whether it is just the computation or it will actually happen it seems good to post in here.

this would definitely not fit in other threads, but, HRRR is showing, a structure more similar to PTC 8 for the current situation. a lot of interaction with the trough to the north is visible. i feel like that itself is likely to happen but i'm not sure if the actual cyclonic structure will change. Debby and PTC 8 were really different structurally though. If it does merge with the trough and low system early it may become more of a southeaster as was PTC 8. updated 9/24 , for banter's interest's sake. it is again indicating a structural transition.

yes, it is a very interesting overall picture !!

Sort of but moreso in that it's a coastal storm than how it generated. This is a very good post from storm2k from yesterday,

mid morning through to now !!

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key messages: *Confidence in a low pressure system developing (potentially with a band of heavy rain and wind around at least part of the center) has increased somewhat. *Questions remain as to where this system may cross the coast. *Wherever this system tracks, heavy rainfall is likely mainly near and north through east of the center (with peak amounts in the 2-5 inch range possible) and much lighter rain expected on its western and southern sides. Discussion: [...] Meanwhile, surface low pressure is expected to develop and gradually deepen along a stalled front well offshore on Sunday and Sunday night while being steered by a combination of high pressure to its north, a coastal trough extending north of the surface low, and a broad and weak mid-level low over the Deep South. These steering factors continue to yield considerable uncertainty in the forecast timing and track of this low, which results in a range of differences in the location of impacts between Monday and Tuesday. Although the latest guidance suite is coming into somewhat better agreement than we have seen over the last few days that a low pressure system will develop and track towards the coast, considerable differences remain in where the rain associated with this system will fall. In short, wherever this low happens to cross the coast, heavy rainfall peaking in the 2-5 inch range will be possible generally on the northeastern side of the low with lesser amounts to its west and south. Therefore, if the low tracks more north towards Cape Lookout or Cape Hatteras, then most or all of the area should see little rainfall. NHC has raised the probability of this system acquiring tropical characteristics to 50% within the next few days before it potentially reaches the coast. Thus, while gusty winds are expected generally to the north of the low due to high pressure over New England causing a tightened pressure gradient, a band of enhanced wind and rain near the center of the low may develop as well.

i was surprised that long range HRRR was uniquely accurate for both Ian (2022) and Debby this year and i have seen people saying over the years that it often can have some functional purpose alongside the ensembles. i will take your advice nonetheless!!

Yes , here it is in terms of radar. 18z was of course somewhat different in terms of timing and area.

HRRR was accurate with, even the unusual shape and timing of Debby this year and some of the other Mid Atlantic development in earlier years. That does not mean it is accurate this time but so far it looks like whatever this is.

Yes; it's somewhat similar to this too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Lee_(2011)

Ok!! good news @Stormchaserchuck1 it does work, but, not via the 'img' code. It does work via the Other Media menu at the lower right corner of the new post module

Yes; there are even currently two west-to-east lows in the region with trough structure. That is a contintent-sized anomalous heat so maybe it is generating a more continental weather pattern??

I think that freeimage host or img bb will work for you !! Upload there and then in the new post area click on "other media" and paste the address once you click "insert image from URL". i think with both sites you have to click on your uploaded image to link to the full size image.