IntenseBlizzard2014

One thing that caught my attention was that the 06Z NAM had a closed-off H5 Low at Delaware's Latitude. That's probably why the snowfall pushed further inland this time.

I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what I've seen from the UKMET was quite an eye-opener.

The 00Z GEFS looks like puke. Although, based on the latest shifts, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS OP/GEFS made large adjustments by 06Z.

The 06Z GFS really wanted to rush the storm. The H5 vort closed off over NJ while remaining Positive tilted. This would benefit the coast quite a bit, but alas the amount of snowfall would be cut down further inland (Southern NY and NE PA) vs 00Z. Seems like EPA will get the goods on this run.

It's actually 3.5 days away.

Maybe this our chance to take a well-deserved break?

The QBO value is nearing the -5 to +5 range. The QBO value as of November 2019 is +5.07. Let's see if the QBO can go a little lower for December.

It's probably the snow growth. It's not exactly impressive area-wide. Some people are getting huge snowflakes. Others are not.

If there are disruptions on the stratospheric and tropospheric levels of the PV up north through late December, then there should be a window of opportunity through mid January into mid February.

Yeah. I'd be cautious about this one for the coast. The primary low not transferring quick enough is one scenario that's glaringly bad for the coast. Another problem is dry-slotting.

Yeah. I gotta admit, this winter looks like a rickety bridge because of this and the very warm IOD.

I had a feeling it wasn't going to look good. The IOD doesn't look impressive for us. Nor does the NAO.

I'd say that up to 74 is more likely. Even in a super warm month like October of 2007 didn't have highs near 90 in the second half of October.

We really dodged a bullet. If Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa was 350 miles further west, we'd be talking about heavy rain and high winds with insane wave heights.

Lucky 10s.