rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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12/15 Possible I81 event. First inch of the season out here?
rjvanals replied to clskinsfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
If this was 6 hours earlier we would’ve likely gotten on the board w a minor accumulation even in the immediate metro area; just a bit unlucky -
18z GFS would be annoying
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Got the DC/Balt snowhole so it might be right
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18z Euro says Sunday is still worth watching especially for N/W of 95
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Impressive miss by short range guidance which even this morning showed highs only around 40 at DCA which is now at 47
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Interesting that both the Euro and GFS agree on a storm being off Cape Hatteras 12/21-12/22
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Euro looks good for the 21st
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Euro actually is kind of close for Sunday for a brief period of front end snow even into the metros
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Not sure how the first system can work even with a perfect track since the airmass ahead of it's garbage. A potential follow up storm that looks like Boxing Day 2010 is a easier chance to score imo
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Still think the 2nd potential window on the 21st-22nd has a better shot since the cold air will be established at that point
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Euro also suggests a chance 12-21/12-22 with a bit better timing
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Both NAMs show snow squalls moving through right before dawn
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00z GFS is totally different (not in a good way) for late weekend storm compared to 18z
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One example that pops in my head was 2 weeks after the 1996 blizzard we had tremendous flooding w the cutter but still had 2-4 inches of snow forecasted on the back side (w winter weather advisories). We got the flooding but obviously no snow and I wonder if that would still be a bust today.
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A few flurries here in Potomac
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Watertown is typically just a bit north for the epic long duration lake events which are usually focused somewhere from ~Adams Center in Jefferson County to Central Square in Oswego County
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We’d get 2in/hr from lake effect pretty often on campus but not for more than 4 or 5 hours. The best snow was when we get a shift in wind to the NW and the healthy bands would swing south from Oswego county producing 4in/hr snow squalls that would come through w occasional thundersnow (had it 3 times on campus and twice chasing during my 4 years)
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When I went to Syracuse this was pretty common with heavy snow over the airport on the north side of the city but nothing over campus
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I'm still watching Sat night/Sunday morning as the GFS has a wave tracking to our south and suggests precip makes it over the mtns
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Crazy difference in just 800 feet!
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If you want to see a good example of what a little elevation will do take a look at the webcams at Whitetail and Liberty; nothing at the base winter wonderland up top
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Got very light snow here in Potomac
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Downsloping
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Pretty gusty storm right now in Potomac
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What a call earlier today https://x.com/matthewcappucci/status/1798337643761299914?s=46&t=mT77ePKjXzTPB67-AoPUUg
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