rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Normally we need low dewpoints heading into a event but this time it's killing our chances of seeing anything measurable
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RGEM is a touch north and gets snow close to DC
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ICON is no good
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The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right
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NAM would be wrong even if it was in cm's
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When has the NAM ever been wrong on such short leads
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max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol
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I'm not sure why we have such a pocket of dry air as soon as your north of the Potomac coming into the event compared to everywhere else on the East Coast
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Pivotal/Weatherbell/TropicalTidbits are just trying to get site visits up w the NAM run
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The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter
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Yeah it's not normal but mostly just bad luck for your backyard since you've had chances but they've all underperformed for various small scale reasons
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Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo
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Yeah and far less weak systems; the OP was on the far western part of the Ensembles run and much stronger
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Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood
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Flipping back through the ensembles one warning sign should have been DC maxed out at 90% showing greater than 1 inch and ~50% of 4 inch plus; the means looked great due to some huge hits but some simulations showed this outcome
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I’d sign up for this run at this point
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Good news is we don’t have to wait long til the ICON then RGEM then GFS tell us to go to bed before the Euro
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3-6-13 was the worst bust imo
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We have warning level snow as close as Waldorf w 72 hours to go; it’s not looking good but we don’t need a huge shift for warning level snow and super minor shift for advisory level. It sucks the MECS fell apart but let’s salvage at least something
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Toggling through the Euro runs since Friday and there's only small changes synoptically so trying to figure out what has screwed this up
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GEFS Panels
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As I've gotten older the tracking and excitement for the next model run is 80% of the fun with having it actually snow being a great bonus.
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Even if this storm trends to what we all fear, it was still a great long range call by @psuhoffmanto identify this as a threat window
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It's crazy we're ~100 hours out with such a wide range of outcomes
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a few flurries in Potomac
