rjvanals

Normally we need low dewpoints heading into a event but this time it's killing our chances of seeing anything measurable

RGEM is a touch north and gets snow close to DC

ICON is no good

The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right

NAM would be wrong even if it was in cm's

When has the NAM ever been wrong on such short leads

max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol

I'm not sure why we have such a pocket of dry air as soon as your north of the Potomac coming into the event compared to everywhere else on the East Coast

Pivotal/Weatherbell/TropicalTidbits are just trying to get site visits up w the NAM run

The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter

Yeah it's not normal but mostly just bad luck for your backyard since you've had chances but they've all underperformed for various small scale reasons

Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo

Yeah and far less weak systems; the OP was on the far western part of the Ensembles run and much stronger

Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood

Flipping back through the ensembles one warning sign should have been DC maxed out at 90% showing greater than 1 inch and ~50% of 4 inch plus; the means looked great due to some huge hits but some simulations showed this outcome