AmericanWxFreak

12z HRRR shows the flooding concerns with some areas under the gun for an extended period of time -

New Day 2 Outlook pretty much unchanged - however, wording suggests the potential for our area to see an upgrade later on and insight into why they arent pulling the trigger yet... ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Strong heating is expected across a broad, moist warm sector with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians by Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to potentially strong instability across much of the East Coast. The best chance for more organized storms will be from central Virginia northward where stronger shear will be present beneath 50 knot mid-level flow. A zone of potentially greater severe weather probabilities may be present across the Mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability/shear are expected to overlap. It appears the cold front will lag well behind with the majority of convection developing along a pre-frontal trough during the afternoon. Without the stronger frontal forcing, some concerns about convective coverage/intensity exist, precluding higher probabilities at this time. South of this area, mid-level flow will not be as strong. Therefore, more modest shear will limit greater storm organization. Nonetheless, modest (25 knot) shear will support some multicell storms capable of damaging wind gusts across North Carolina. Even weaker shear will be present across the southeast where strong instability is expected. Storms are not expected to be as organized here, but the strong instability and moist environment could support some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts.

This looks fun for Thursday....

15% hail area removed from midday D1 update - otherwise, pretty much the same for our neck.

Was surprised to see as much soon as we have so far here in Jessup.

HRRR says nothing interesting with maybe the exception of Frederick County and up into PA

Bay Bridge completely shut down

So i guess north of the STW just gets a wind advisory? Woo lol DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053>055-057-527-052100- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250305T2100Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1111 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph. * WHERE...DC, and portions of central, northern, and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.

Looks like we pretty much just got exactly that on the GFS side. Ok, now lock it in. And lets get the Euro to make its move in a little bit here too.

GFS meets the Euro halfway on placement and the Euro meets the GFS halfway on juice and were golden...

lol p25 is cool with me

I thought that was some inside joke here I wasn't privy to lol

0z FV3 had the boundary draped across SOMD lol