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madwx

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Everything posted by madwx

  1. madwx
    GFS finally fully capitulated, down to less than an inch here on all models. Was looking back and at the 12z run two days ago the GFS had a 15" jackpot in green bay. Not the best winter for our hometown model.
  2. madwx
    Eh we've been pretty lucky overall this winter with a few overperformers and deep snowcover for about the past month. Also my mind is switching to spring mode so by the end of this month I'm rooting for warmer weather and thunderstorms vs cold and snow.
  3. madwx
    The trend downward here continues on the GFS. Still warning criteria but losing about 2” per run
  4. madwx
    Kuchera is actually better than the standard 10:1 because its actually showing lower ratios which are much more realistic for this storm,
  5. madwx
    3km NAM is a bit healthier into Southern Wisconsin
  6. madwx
    Some areas with Winter Storm Watches in Wisconsin get 0 snow with the 0z NAM
  7. madwx
    from 11.1" to 0.7" in 2 runs of the NAM. Pretty impressive I must say
  8. madwx
    Here is surface temps which shows a similar pattern.
  9. madwx
    It has much better verification scores than the GFS and is only slightly worse than the Euro.
  10. madwx
    GFS still north. but trend in less snow here is obvious. from 10.1" to 8.9"
  11. madwx
    This is probably the reason all the offices are going with such high totals and watches
  12. madwx
    NAM went from 11.1" to 4.7" here between the 12z and 18z run
  13. madwx
    the text for the watch is 7-12" for MSN. That's just taking the GFS straight and disregarding any other guidance
  14. madwx
    Lol MKX going WSW for most of the CWA. Not sure I would have done that
  15. madwx
    Trending toward DAB to 2” here. Will just have to see if the GFS falls in line
  16. madwx
    my second post call is still in play. We will see what the euro shows
  17. madwx
    if Madison gets 14” I’ll eat a hat. But actually this is looking good for a high advisory low end warning criteria snow here. Will be interesting to see if any other models folllow the ukmet in shutting us out
  18. madwx
    Yeah late February 2017 was very impressive in terms of widespread warmth. Like a mini March 2012
  19. madwx
    I’ve never seen a more misleading dark blue on a temp scale
  20. madwx
    Yeah the upper level evolution of the Euro and some of its ensembles that I’ve looked at seem to make more physical sense than what the gfs is showing
  21. madwx
    This is a complicated pattern and there are numerous ways this can evolve. Depending on how strong the first and second waves are and the timing between the two. 6z GFS is probably the upper limit here with the second wave coming in further north and deepening the original low substantially. I also wouldn’t mind a better hit further south since we’ve gotten our fair share of snow here and the weenies down south could use a nice storm
  22. madwx
    A bit off topic but this vortex isn’t going anywhere any time soon. A good analog is 1997 and the stratospheric final warming didn’t occur until April 30.
  23. madwx
    Will enjoy the cirrostratus canopy
  24. madwx
    Here’s the max depth of the past 13 or so winters. Can really see the hot streak we had from 2007-2011
  25. madwx
    In Dec 2012 the depth got to 11", deepest last year was 9" in early February
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