madwx

everything in the house gets a pinkish hue around 5 each night. pretty cool

Yeah we might have weeks of this

An update on future risks now that we have Vicki) 1. The area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico has gotten more convectively active. Euro ensembles more bullish on this system as it meanders through the southern Gulf over the next week. 2. The latest wave to come off Africa looks fairly robust and slow development should occur as it moves across the Atlantic at a fairly low latitude. 3. Have to watch the area off the SE coast for tail end development from the cold front that will kick Sally out. Relative model consensus on an area of low pressure developing and this is a climatologically favored area. 4. Another wave will be coming off Africa later this week, though this one looks to be at a higher latitude so not sure how much potential for development there will be. 5. Very long range (post 9/21) but there is a chance for something out of the CAG off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.

Most likely Wilfred or a greek name. Vicky will probably go to 97L as it heads NW from the Cabo Verde islands

In addition to the 5 active areas in the atlantic right now(Paulette, Rene, TD 19, 95L in the central Atlantic and the recently added 97L in the far eastern Atlantic) there are a few more areas to keep an eye on. 1. A spin in the Gulf of Mexico S of New Orleans: This area is highlighted by the NHC and it will slowly move SW in the Gulf over the next few days. 2. An area of convection in the SW Gulf of Mexico: not much of anything at the surface but convection has been festering E of Veracruz for at least the past day now. 3. The Euro Ensembles are fairly consistent with a low latitude wave moving off of the Africa coast in the next couple days. 4. Any spinups along the ITCZ, especially just east of the Leeward Islands though this is much more of a long shot. And if that wasn't enough, the Euro Ensembles are already showing at least another wave or 2 moving off of Africa after this weekend.

2007-08 looks like a good analog. Especially if La Nina gets a little stronger than progged. Would take that winter and following severe weather season

Updated the above graph through the summer. August surprising trending drier but that April through July stretch is getting so wet. Annual precip going up at least 2.5" as well. We do wet very well around here.

Spain, France and a few other European countries are having a rough time again. They really took the foot off the gas for social distancing measures and are now paying the price.

Another record cold high temp yesterday at 53 complete the trifecta of the past three days. Today’s should be unreachable but the rain and cloud cover has overperformed so you never know

Man the arctic is moving to Hudson Bay and you’re just going to have to get used to it

Another record cold max yesterday of 51. Again the earliest it's been this cold for a high, breaking the previous date of Sept 12th. 0.35" of rain yesterday, 1.72" for the month. Steadier rain than was expected today, looks like only slight drying tomorrow before rain moves back in

not only was yesterday a record low max of 54 in Madison, it was also earliest in the season it's been this cool. Previously the earliest min high temp of 54 was September 10th.

Record low max of 57 today is definitely in play for Madison

This guy is good

snow showers on the backside of the low?

The ride never ends

Para GFS and both GFS ensembles back the op GFS. Same with the UKMET and the Canadian.

the Euro has a pretty radically different look to early next week for the past few runs.

Come on guys. It’s not man made climate change, it’s just man made changes to the environment that are making things warmer

With another typhoon recurving expect another cold dump during the second and third week of September. Wouldn’t be surprised at some early frosts in northern areas

1970 really brought the heat in Brainerd

In addition, Chicago, Tampa, Miami, Harrisburg and a few dozen other cities have also had their warmest summer on record

This guy is good.

Definitely a chance of tornadoes tomorrow in Wisconsin along the warm front

>trying to forecast 240 hours out >not using ensembles pick one