madwx
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Everything posted by madwx
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The NAMs really speed up the precipitation tomorrow. It's breaking out in southern Wisconsin by 3 PM Also all of the 18z models have shifted the heaviest precip band in a more NW/SE orientation. The QC area gets a lot less snow
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meanwhile the 12z GFSv16 has the trough ejecting much slower which allows it to be suppressed and drives a 986 low through Chicago
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12z GFS comes in a bit slower and more amped. Gets the low down to 975 over SW Wisconsin on Thursday evening
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I would be using the snow depth change depiction of snow totals on the south end just north of the rain/snow line. For example the HRRR has Bloomington getting 6.2" but only a snow depth change of 2.3". Showing that most of that snowfall is either going to be melting on contact or having a tough time accumulating due to existing rainfall.
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Based on xmacis got 5.8 at MSN with that one. Was the last hurrah of winter that year.
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the pattern is shifting with this weekends storm. The west based -NAO will become an east based -NAO. That's why this storm will be able to cut much further west.
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Euro has 974mb over Rochester at 12z on Friday. Lots of rain in the warm sector.
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looks like we'll be getting about half the QPF of areas in N/C Illinois. But ratios should be better up here so still hoping to get around 5" as a first guess. Dry air still doesn't look to be an issue as all the dry air at 850 is shunted up to the UP
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Down to -7 this morning under clear and calm conditions. Made it below zero before midnight so we get two days for good measure
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yeah, you all better thank the west based -NAO for salvaging the second half of January into a productive stretch
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The end of January and first week of February 2019 was a good clipper train
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laying down over 3" in southern Illinois. Overperformer
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Hoosier at the tip of the red arrow. Not a good sign for his snow chances.
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This month looks to start out on the mild side with a possible cutter at the end of the first week. But after that there are signs in the long range models that much below normal temps could be in the cards for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February.
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ORD up to 6" storm total
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18z GFS is wagons south. Not quite to the Euro but a significant step
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one nice thing about this event is that there will be a lot of moisture advection with it. Models show low and mid levels will be pretty juiced
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we had our first sunset after 5 pm a couple days ago. Next big milestone on our march to spring is 10 hours of daylight, which we'll get on Feb 2.
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sun coming out here and mood flakes winding down. thinking around 6.5" here total. Anywhere between 6"-10" in the county, most NW.
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still lightly snowing here. Family member got 9.5" in the NW part of Dane County. They were under the heavy fronto band for about 3 hours last night.
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got about 6" here, with some drifts of well over a foot. Roads look to be a mess
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3.8” at MSN as of 6 AM
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Des Moines up to 12.6" storm total O'Hare at 3.1" Quad Cities at 6.1"
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Estimating 4” or so outside right now. The heaviest band has set up just north of town
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Snow starting here as a wall of 25 dBz reflectivities hit us. Moderate sized flakes right now
