madwx
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Everything posted by madwx
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All signals are there for serious cold to be in place from the 7-14 of February. Some signals that a piece of the TPV will come rotating through the area
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Death, taxes and the GFS showing insane cold in the extended
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Estimating about 5” total here but really tough to measure with all the drifts. Sun peeking out a bit. May get a few more snow showers the rest of the day
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3.8" as of 6 AM at MSN. Very light snow for the past couple hours here, lots of blowing and drifting
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6.8” at ORD so far, 6.0 at RFD, 7.4” at MDW, 9.5” at LOT
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1.6 inches at the MSN airport as of 9 pm
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Still coming down but can’t get a large flake size. Wind is howling out there which will make measuring futile
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Really coming down out there with a strong wind. Flake size still small though
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Pouring small flakes here. Already about a quarter inch on sidewalks
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some drizzle started about 20 mins ago and switched pretty quickly to pixie dust. maybe a few larger flakes at times.] Moderate snow up to the Dane County line. Should be here within the hour
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It's not really a dryness thing here, its more just a slower progression northward of the forcing for precip. Getting reports of drizzle on the SW side of Madison so we just need the forcing to arrive(probably in an hour or so) and well be golden.
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still dry here. Precip start time is going to be at least a couple hours behind what most models had
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The trend of a mild first week, significant storm around the 4-7 and then deep cold for about a week before moderating for the second half of the month seems to still be holding for now. Looking like a majority of the area will have a deep snowpack before the cold plunge.
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Y’all are getting snow in Chicago already
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will be interesting if this can push us up to 15" snow depth. Only 23 years in history have we had a 15" snow depth in the winter, most recently 2010-2011
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Gonna go with a 6” final call. Lingering snow tomorrow morning brings us to that half foot mark
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This storm is gonna end up with a McHenry County bullseye
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The NAMs really speed up the precipitation tomorrow. It's breaking out in southern Wisconsin by 3 PM Also all of the 18z models have shifted the heaviest precip band in a more NW/SE orientation. The QC area gets a lot less snow
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meanwhile the 12z GFSv16 has the trough ejecting much slower which allows it to be suppressed and drives a 986 low through Chicago
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12z GFS comes in a bit slower and more amped. Gets the low down to 975 over SW Wisconsin on Thursday evening
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I would be using the snow depth change depiction of snow totals on the south end just north of the rain/snow line. For example the HRRR has Bloomington getting 6.2" but only a snow depth change of 2.3". Showing that most of that snowfall is either going to be melting on contact or having a tough time accumulating due to existing rainfall.
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Based on xmacis got 5.8 at MSN with that one. Was the last hurrah of winter that year.
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the pattern is shifting with this weekends storm. The west based -NAO will become an east based -NAO. That's why this storm will be able to cut much further west.
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Euro has 974mb over Rochester at 12z on Friday. Lots of rain in the warm sector.
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looks like we'll be getting about half the QPF of areas in N/C Illinois. But ratios should be better up here so still hoping to get around 5" as a first guess. Dry air still doesn't look to be an issue as all the dry air at 850 is shunted up to the UP
