madwx

got an advisory for 3 to 6 with a glaze of ice and 35 mph winds post frontal

gonna lose track of which storm thread is which

still looking like a high end advisory total here(4" to 6") but the extra impacts mean we will probably get a warning. This thing has really sped up though. Most models have the snow getting out of here by around 9pm tomorrow night.

We're already starting to run into that in Madison, and with up to 10" coming in the next week it will become much more difficult. Especially with the brutal cold temps

will be interesting to see if these trend north and clip southern Wisconsin or if the PV pushes them south enough. The trend has seemed to be a bit northward

the second blast of cold air definitely looks stronger. Maybe getting a reprieve into the teens on Tuesday or Wednesday before it hits. All in all this is looking like a 10 day stretch of much below normal temps

got down to 0 this morning. about 8 degrees below the point forecast from last night

I move out of an apartment and into a house I bought at the end of this month. Will finally be able to get reliable snow and precip measurements

12z Euro has this in 2 waves now. The initial cold shot from Friday through Tuesday and then a reinforcement of cold air in the middle of next week

lol 558 heights over Baffin Bay

I think it'll end up 10 or 15 degrees warmer but a good chance to break some record lows. Super Bowl Sunday is gonna be cold

I'm all aboard this threat. Will probably have to extend the timing of this as the cold looks to extend until the end of next week. Long range GFS is probably overdone but definitely seeing the possibility of some below zero high temps.

was wild

Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that. Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN 5 -21 1936 -8 1895 6 -19 1977 -5 1875 7 -21 1875 -2 1893 8 -22 1899 -7 1875 9 -28 1899 -15 1899 10 -25 1899 -5 1899 11 -22 1885 -6 1899 Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6.

GFS continues to show very cold air for about a week starting on Friday, with the brunt of the coldest air in the Sun-Tue timeframe. After next week most long range models show the core of the coldest air shifting slightly NW to the Northern Plains, but it will still easily reach this region on the backside of any trough.

luckily as of right now the snow pack in Northern Wisconsin and Minnesota is below climo norms which would temper some river flooding but plenty of time for that to change

looking more and more likely we will get a solid advisory level snow with this. If the low tracks south of here, there's no chance we'll have enough warm air to keep it as rain

GFS bringing in the cold air much earlier. Has subzero temps here by Friday.

This thing has staying power. Probably going to have quite the snow melt/high river season in March.

January finished with: Average temp of 21.9(+2.4 of 1991-2020) Precip of 1.27"(-0.19" of 1991-2020) Snowfall of 17.0"(+3.3" of 1991-2020)

looks like we'll have a significant amount of sun the first half of this week, and any brutal cold next week will also have sunshine so turning out to be a much brighter first half of the month than January had

You give me hope that I can still be a troll well into my parenting years

All signals are there for serious cold to be in place from the 7-14 of February. Some signals that a piece of the TPV will come rotating through the area

Death, taxes and the GFS showing insane cold in the extended

Estimating about 5” total here but really tough to measure with all the drifts. Sun peeking out a bit. May get a few more snow showers the rest of the day