madwx

another thing to note is that the Stratospheric Polar Winds had their last reversal a few days ago and are now forecast to return to normal levels by mid-month. The tropospheric flow has been disrupted and the cold air will be dislodged for a while but there won't be any more stratospheric disruptions until the final warming later in the spring.

snow starting here. Fairly light right now but should be picking up shortly. Convective nature to the snow to our SW heading this way.

peeks of average to above average temps finally arriving around 2/17-2/19. Guessing people will be getting tired of the cold by then

mostly freezing rain here with a few sleet pellets mixed in. Sidewalks are slick but roads seem fine.

Getting some sleet here to start off the storm

Mixed precip about to start here with the initial waa band. The main show should start around 11 with heavy snow

This storm seems to be cutting more than the weekend clipper which allows nice storm totals to lift into the area

would be glad to welcome someone to the club

got an advisory for 3 to 6 with a glaze of ice and 35 mph winds post frontal

gonna lose track of which storm thread is which

still looking like a high end advisory total here(4" to 6") but the extra impacts mean we will probably get a warning. This thing has really sped up though. Most models have the snow getting out of here by around 9pm tomorrow night.

We're already starting to run into that in Madison, and with up to 10" coming in the next week it will become much more difficult. Especially with the brutal cold temps

will be interesting to see if these trend north and clip southern Wisconsin or if the PV pushes them south enough. The trend has seemed to be a bit northward

the second blast of cold air definitely looks stronger. Maybe getting a reprieve into the teens on Tuesday or Wednesday before it hits. All in all this is looking like a 10 day stretch of much below normal temps

got down to 0 this morning. about 8 degrees below the point forecast from last night

I move out of an apartment and into a house I bought at the end of this month. Will finally be able to get reliable snow and precip measurements

12z Euro has this in 2 waves now. The initial cold shot from Friday through Tuesday and then a reinforcement of cold air in the middle of next week

lol 558 heights over Baffin Bay

I think it'll end up 10 or 15 degrees warmer but a good chance to break some record lows. Super Bowl Sunday is gonna be cold

I'm all aboard this threat. Will probably have to extend the timing of this as the cold looks to extend until the end of next week. Long range GFS is probably overdone but definitely seeing the possibility of some below zero high temps.

was wild

Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that. Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN 5 -21 1936 -8 1895 6 -19 1977 -5 1875 7 -21 1875 -2 1893 8 -22 1899 -7 1875 9 -28 1899 -15 1899 10 -25 1899 -5 1899 11 -22 1885 -6 1899 Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6.

GFS continues to show very cold air for about a week starting on Friday, with the brunt of the coldest air in the Sun-Tue timeframe. After next week most long range models show the core of the coldest air shifting slightly NW to the Northern Plains, but it will still easily reach this region on the backside of any trough.

luckily as of right now the snow pack in Northern Wisconsin and Minnesota is below climo norms which would temper some river flooding but plenty of time for that to change

looking more and more likely we will get a solid advisory level snow with this. If the low tracks south of here, there's no chance we'll have enough warm air to keep it as rain