madwx

Some lightning S of Omaha this morning

There’s going to be a countywide band of overperformance where a connective band sets up. DBQ area looks prime for that

The start time has been getting progressively later. Looking like mid afternoon around here. First call of 2”

Made it down to -5 here this morning which may be our last day of below zero temps this season

The Euro still seems to be doing horribly with snowpack modelling. It currently has us with 26" of snow depth, which is 12" more than we actually have. And by the end of it's 10 day run it only decreases our snow depth by 3" to 23" even though it has a week of above freezing temps(and only 1.5" of accumulation on Sunday). Just goes to show that even the king has modelling deficiencies.

March looks to start off with a Neutral/Positive AO/NAO and a -PNA. This should allow the SE Ridge to flex it's muscles a bit and bring warm air to at least the SE half of the subforum. An active storm track looks to continue though there may be periods of dry weather. There is a chance of a minor disruption to the TPV around the beginning of March but any cold blast would be short lived. Looking long range there will be a lot of snow to melt over the next month or two leading to increased flood risk. In addition the drought over the SW and plains is continuing which may allow a stronger EML to move into the region increasing severe weather chances.

Actually overperformed by a few degrees today up to 25.

getting some cumulus popping up here for the first time in a while.

also vaccines are very very good at preventing severe illness so at that point any vaccinated person should have no fear at getting anything more than a mild illness even if they do get infected

The forecasted cloud cover the past 2 days has been a bust here. Full sunshine now after some mid level clouds this morning

He also predicts cold weather will last through the last week of March. Which I will press X to doubt

Winter is holding me hostage and I'm Stockholm Syndroming pretty hard rn.

Overperforming today, already up to 17 under filtered sunshine. It seems like the full cloud cover won't be rolling in until the evening

pretty crazy temp rise this morning as the inversion broke, 20 degrees in the past 3 hours and 15 degrees in the past 2 hours.

Down to -14 so far this morning. 2 away from the record low. Got one last major radiational cooling night on Friday night

Radiating very well tonight. Down to -5 already

We've had the 6th coldest first 15 days of February here with an average temp of 3.7 degrees. The only comparable stretch in recent history is 2007 which had an average of 4.4 degrees but ended the month at 14.4.

walked outside in a t shirt and full sun and 16 felt alright

This is the greatest snow cover extent since at least 2003.

up to 9 degrees and full sunshine. Feels like a heatwave outside. Will finally be able to melt some of the snow and ice that's been stuck on the roads

Got slightly higher today with 73.6% snow coverage. Thinking this should be the max

Got 0.4” here on the far NW edge of the snow shield

Some N/S oriented gravity waves showing up on MKX radar

finally popped above 0 here. Between 8 pm Friday and 3 pm Monday we only had 1 hour above 0.

Kuchera is actually really simplistic. You just take the max column temp below 500 mb, subtract it from -2 celsius and add it to 12. So for example if the max column temp was -12 celsius, you would do 10+12 so 22:1 ratios.