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madwx

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Everything posted by madwx

  1. madwx
    maybe people will stop trash talking the GFSv16 and actually realize it'll be an improvement on the current GFS
  2. madwx
    Looks like models are keying in on an inverted trough on the NW side of the system that gives us a couple inches Monday night
  3. madwx
    made it to -12 this morning. One degree shy of the record for the day. High clouds rolling in around 5 saved the record low.
  4. madwx
    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KMSN Just wanted to show everybody this website. Its the equivalent of the SREF plumes but for the GFS ensemble. You can just select the station on the map and you can bookmark it. Very helpful for seeing how the GEFS members are trending.
  5. madwx
    One reason is that they count any frozen precip as snow so in a storm with a lot of sleet it’ll be counted as 10:1 instead of 4:1 or so. That’s not happening here but it may be something they are doing when calculating the kuchera method, like the max column temp they are using is lower for some reason which really inflates ratios
  6. madwx
    La Crosse tied their record cold high of 0 today and Rochester set their record cold high of -3.
  7. madwx
    lots of people going to be disappointed in snow totals if they keep looking at the weatherbell weenie maps
  8. madwx
    it really matters how much of the column is in the dendritic growth zone and other factors like fracturing of snowflakes by the wind. Low temps don't always equal crazy high ratios. For a major synoptic storm like this it's pretty tough to average more than 15:1.
  9. madwx
    About 1.5” here. Sun came out right after the snow stopped and it’s beautiful out despite the cold temps
  10. madwx
    The GFS v16 has been much better. looking foward to it taking over as the operational GFS next month
  11. madwx
    Only three years since 2000 have we not hit 57 by the end of March, and in those 3 years we got it in the first week of April. Some warmer stretches will be here before you know it
  12. madwx
    Our record lows are -13 and -14 tomorrow and Monday. Record cold max is -3 both days. Those seem like our best chance of breaking records this stretch
  13. madwx
    Light snow for the past few hours at -5. Pretty crazy stuff
  14. madwx
    those snow showers are below the mid level dry layer while the stronger returns moving eastward are higher up and evaporating as they fall through the dry layer
  15. madwx
    first sunrise of the season before 7 am here. The longer afternoon daylight was noticeable but starting to get signs of it in the morning as well
  16. madwx
    only down to -2 last night due to the snow and cloud cover. Looks like our coldest day coming up will be Sunday with highs struggling to break zero and temps dropping into the mid teens Sunday night. A warming trend commences after that
  17. madwx
    Fairly consistent signal of temps around freezing by next weekend and then periods of above average temps after that. The 20s next week will feel like a heat wave
  18. madwx
    big dendrites in Iowa should be heading this way later this afternoon
  19. madwx
    whenever skies are clear temps really tank here. It's down to 0 already as we try to tag our 5th day of negative double digit temps after midnight
  20. madwx
    Looks like Ohio has undercounted about 4,000 covid deaths and will be adding them to their total over the next few weeks as part of their data reconciliation process https://odh.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/odh/media-center/odh-news-releases/odh-news-release-02-10-20
  21. madwx
    you may remove one spartman but three will come to take his place
  22. madwx
    just actually looked at their profile picture for the first time. yikes
  23. madwx
    NAM is juiced. Definitely taking the under but can see an advisory level snow for S WI and N IL.
  24. madwx
    MSN has a similar issue. Shows 5.3" this month when there's only been 3.7"
  25. madwx
    torched all the way up to 10 today after an early low of -18
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