madwx
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Everything posted by madwx
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also with all the talk of warm air and surfaces before the storm, we're going to be below freezing for a solid 12 hours before the snow starts falling
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HRRR which had been on the low end of totals jumped up to 5" here. Paved surfaces won't accumulate as much but models are honing in on the high end advisory scenario here.
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I think our pace of vaccinations will be just enough to beat back any future wave but as Europe is showing we’re just beating it
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There is actually pretty good agreement on a cutter going far NW around the 21-24. Should flood the area with mild air and bring a chance of thunderstorms.
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The GFS still has really high amounts here compared to all the other models. I'm still forecasting a low end advisory, guessing about 3-4" when it's all said and done
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looks like a pretty potent fronto band that will weaken with time as it heads eastward. Models anywhere between 1-5 inches here. Initial guess is on the low end of that range
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If I were to pick a week in May to go storm chasing in the plains, when would you recommend it?
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don't look now but the drought is expanding across the Midwest. Gotta hope some of these systems in the next few weeks actually pan out
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It’s no 8/10/2020 though
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GFS coming back down to earth in snow totals E of Iowa and much more in line with the v16 and Euro. Expecting DAB to 1" here
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Easily broke the previous record warm min yesterday. The record was 40 and we only got down to 48
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that UH streak from S Minnesota thru the SE side of the Twin Cities on the HRRR is going to verify well
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Same, there were still a few piles in my yard but they easily got wiped out overnight. The frost in the ground also thawed as the piles of standing water yesterday are gone now, despite some rain this morning.
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whatever cooldown we have from the 15-25 looks to be fairly mild with around normal temps expected. Long range progs show a warmup occurring after that with teleconnections remaining favorable and the MJO moving out of cool regions for the midwest.
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just got our first 60 of the season here. Snow coverage down below 50% in my neighborhood.
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Seasons are changing and so are our complaints. First up some good news though, more proof that the GFSv16 is performing much better than the old GFS and has even been doing better than the Euro.
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thanks, the pandemic was the wakeup call I needed to make changes in my life to be healthier, but unfortunately many don't have the means or education to make those changes.
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oh believe me, I've lost 60 pounds in the past year and exercise much more frequently now. But to actually get health changes in this country we would have to divest from the corporate attitude of selling products that detract from personal wellbeing
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the thing is fixing obesity is a years long thing on an individual level and a generational thing on a societal level. Yes it should be dealt with but when a pandemic is here the more immediate steps like masking and distancing are a much more appropriate response.
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Both the GEFS and Euro weeklies show above to much above normal temps lasting through the end of next week. A period of average to possibly slightly below average temps will be around the 15-22, especially in the western subforum, before above average temps move back in the last week of the month.
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broke 50 for the first time this year and the first time since December 23. The snowpack is really taking a beating now. I imagine most of it will be gone by this time next week
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Inversion broke between 8 and 9 am today and the temp went up 9 degrees in an hour. Up past 38 already
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Continuing this thought, todays 12z NAM has high temps(21z) here for the next 4 days of 33, 33, 33 and 32. Can't wait to see how much they are going to bust by
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I know, March's have been reasonably mild around here recently but April has been the killer month in terms of delayed spring.
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It's definitely less than that in a lot of places but the bottom half of the pack is a solid glacier from late December/early January
