madwx
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Everything posted by madwx
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Got 0.4” here on the far NW edge of the snow shield
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Some N/S oriented gravity waves showing up on MKX radar
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finally popped above 0 here. Between 8 pm Friday and 3 pm Monday we only had 1 hour above 0.
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Kuchera is actually really simplistic. You just take the max column temp below 500 mb, subtract it from -2 celsius and add it to 12. So for example if the max column temp was -12 celsius, you would do 10+12 so 22:1 ratios.
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up to 70.4% of the country covered in snow. Have a chance of passing that tomorrow, depending on how much melting(if any) occurs in Texas
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waiting for the official number but looks like we got down to -12 or -13 this morning. Just short of the record again. We just had the 7th coldest first half of February for MSN. Looking forward to the slow climb out of this now. The cold has overstayed its welcome.
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One positive around here is that the consistent snow cover has lead to a fairly shallow frost depth. So when we do warm up the ground won’t stay frozen for long and will be able to soak up water
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56% of the country is covered by snow now. Will be interesting to see how high that number gets later this week
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Missed the record low and record cold max by 1 degree today. Last chance at a record will be tomorrow’s record low of -14
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Looks like we’ll end up right on the edge of the snow and get a dusting. Congrats to all to the SE who will get a great system. Can’t wait to watch all this snow melt after this
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dewpoints have been around -20 all day. Can really feel your skin dry out
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DVN goes WWA for the SE third of their CWA for 2 to 5 inches
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maybe people will stop trash talking the GFSv16 and actually realize it'll be an improvement on the current GFS
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Looks like models are keying in on an inverted trough on the NW side of the system that gives us a couple inches Monday night
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made it to -12 this morning. One degree shy of the record for the day. High clouds rolling in around 5 saved the record low.
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https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KMSN Just wanted to show everybody this website. Its the equivalent of the SREF plumes but for the GFS ensemble. You can just select the station on the map and you can bookmark it. Very helpful for seeing how the GEFS members are trending.
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One reason is that they count any frozen precip as snow so in a storm with a lot of sleet it’ll be counted as 10:1 instead of 4:1 or so. That’s not happening here but it may be something they are doing when calculating the kuchera method, like the max column temp they are using is lower for some reason which really inflates ratios
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La Crosse tied their record cold high of 0 today and Rochester set their record cold high of -3.
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lots of people going to be disappointed in snow totals if they keep looking at the weatherbell weenie maps
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it really matters how much of the column is in the dendritic growth zone and other factors like fracturing of snowflakes by the wind. Low temps don't always equal crazy high ratios. For a major synoptic storm like this it's pretty tough to average more than 15:1.
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Feb 12-14th V-Day Weekend Potential Stuff
madwx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
About 1.5” here. Sun came out right after the snow stopped and it’s beautiful out despite the cold temps -
The GFS v16 has been much better. looking foward to it taking over as the operational GFS next month
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Only three years since 2000 have we not hit 57 by the end of March, and in those 3 years we got it in the first week of April. Some warmer stretches will be here before you know it
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Our record lows are -13 and -14 tomorrow and Monday. Record cold max is -3 both days. Those seem like our best chance of breaking records this stretch
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Feb 12-14th V-Day Weekend Potential Stuff
madwx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Light snow for the past few hours at -5. Pretty crazy stuff
