madwx

Getting hit very hard with rain, probably going to end up well over 1.5" here. Definitely the wettest thunderstorm of the year for us

nice bowing segment heading toward me. Tornadoes possible with any parts of the line that surge NEward.

new convection firing over the center. Definitely qualifies as a TC

some p sick gyres moving around the center tho

January will be rockin'

Getting Dayton'd again

what a different world it is up there

Significant cool down looks on tap with the major storm system in the middle of next week

Weaker stratospheric polar vortex means that there is a greater chance at polar intrusions into the mid latitudes since the polar night jet won't be as strong. There will be more of a negative Arctic Oscillation.

2nd year Nina climo would favor colder and wetter than last year but last year didn't really follow 1st year Nina climo rules. Initial model trends do lean toward a weaker than average Stratospheric Polar vortex.

Tennis Ball sized hail near Green Bay this morning

This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes. Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

A few areas to watch as we go forward over the next two weeks: 1. Larry should continue moving westward and most likely recurve before any land masses but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will have to keep an eye out 2. At least the next two waves coming off Africa after Larry, they will be moving into a favorable state with the CCKW passing overhead 3. 91L looks slightly better today in the SW Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised if we got a weak storm with this either before making landfall in Belize or in the BOC 4. The GFS has started picking up on development of a low off the SE Coast spinning up off the trailing cold front from ex-Ida 5. There is a non tropical low moving southward over the Azores, there is a very small chance of some tropical/sub tropical development here

How are you not banned from this site already?

It's a little difficult to see but you can notice the patch of clouds headed WSW from MSN

You can tell we’re in the doldrums here. Lake effect clouds were forming off Lake Mendota this morning. Will grab a satellite pic in a bit Big fan of the cooler and less humid air sticking around

Yeah, I'm aware. Was really just trying to get the OP to admit that he was wrong

Any update on this? Would be curious to see what the daily area values have done the past couple days

In addition 97L was just designated in the Central Atlantic around 17N 37W. Models are somewhat bullish on development as it turns N and then NE with no major impacts on land over the near future.

The Euro ensembles show 3 areas that could develop over the next 10 days. 1. There is a robust wave inland over Africa that will emerge in the Atlantic by Monday. 2. Another wave will emerge after that and looks to progress at a lower latitude. 3. They also have a disturbance forming over the SW Caribbean sea and developing as it heads NW toward the Yucatan and the GOM. There is actually a fairly robust signal for this. The GEFS show similar solutions and agree on development in the SW Caribbean. The main difference is that the GEFS develop the lead wave over the E Atlantic that the Euro ensembles don't have.

That wildfire is going to be a big one, already up to 1,500 acres and nothing but hot, dry and windy conditions for the next 5 days. Lots of dead and very dry spruce and fir trees in the path of it

Almost ready for those wound up fall systems with some strong CAA on the backside

Tell tale sign has been the lack of cumulus forming in the free warm sector. Only have cumulus forming closer to the front with the gravity wave perturbations showing the stable layer in the atmosphere. Definitely a combo of the cap and outflow from morning convection like @Chicago Storm said

storms have seemed to weaken a bit over the past hour, not sure if reached some more statically stable air or other impact from the morning convection. will have to keep an eye out if this trend continues or if there is an uptick in intensity. The exception is the tail end storm near Prairie du Chien. that thing has been producing monster overshooting tops for the past half hour.