madwx

NAM and NAM3km always underdo temps in the winter and early spring. Especially in dry weather. They don’t mix the boundary layer enough and seem to overcompensate for snow cover too

starting to see some trends for the month of Feb. People who know more can expand and correct me. There will be some high latitude blocking that will give the Polar Vortex a jolt in about a week. Alongside a -AO/-NAO we will likely get a longwave trough in the E/C US. With increased warmth to the SE there will be storms tracking along the baroclinic zone which should give some chances of snow. The SE ridge will not be very strong though, so I wouldn't expect major storms tracking through our region. What will be likely though is below normal temps from about 2/10-2/24. At this time it's not guaranteed that we will have a SSW or have a split polar vortex, in fact there are signs that the disruption will be short lived and the PV will bounce back to strong levels. This means that the cold and blocking would not be favored to last into the month of March.

Madison tied for the driest January on record with 0.10”. Also the late month warm up got us to +0.2 F over average

See you under the defo band

Strong north winds on a late January afternoon and the temps are in the mid 40s. These subtle things are the surest signs to me that the baseline has changed

up to 57 at least. broke the daily record by 10 degrees. only 1 off of the monthly record so may have tied that, will have to see the daily climate summary come in

looking like we'll break the record high on Thursday. it's 47 and the point has us in the low 50s

I will say one benefit of this winter is the extra sunshine from the CAD conditions. Of course the portion of my morning commute that faces eastward at 745 AM is a downside of that

Overperforming nicely. Point had 32 but already up to 36 with a couple more hours to warm up

Down to -11. Should be in the low 20s today and the mid 30s tomorrow

Tanking already. Down to 3 above. Might put up a big number tonight

roads a bit slick this morning, may get up to an inch by evening

-14 here. Might squeak out -15 but warming should commence shortly

-7 this morning after a high of 4 yesterday. pretty cool phenomenon outside right now. There are streaks of virga at low levels but they aren’t falling from any cloud base. Just suspended there

Like a punch to the stomach

50 at Madison - definite overperformer

I'm excited for the frostquakes

Down to -2 this morning. Ready to rollercoaster this weekend

Got some surprise snowfall overnight. Only a tenth or two but covered the roads and sidewalks again

Down to 2 this morning. A lot of the snow from last week actually sublimated away overnight from the windy and dry conditions. First time I’ve seen that occur at night time

Got 0.2” with the front this morning. Actually accumulated more effectively on the roads than on the grass

Down to -4 with the fresh snow cover. 3rd below zero night of the season

Will likely end up around 5” here once all is said and done. Nice slight overperformance. Can see how much if any survives the Christmas warmup

FYI - sunsets are already getting later

Down to -2F here for the first subzero low of the season