madwx

Down to -10 here. Likewise already up to 5

Feel pretty good about this so far, the storm track has been a bit further north than I expected but the cold will last through about the 23rd. Looking for mild air to flood the country after that though.

most global keep showing crazy totals here. have doubts because the upper levels don't scream dynamic system to me and the snow comes in two crazy thumps of WAA and then frontogenesis well north of the main low pressure system

around 3" here, maybe a few tenths more tonight as the system winds down. the main defo band set up a bit to the south of model guidance so we were on the low end of totals

if you get enough forcing/upward motion to tap into the DGZ then you get really good rates, otherwise it's very blah. We'll get about 3-4 more hours of better forcing here through 7-8 PM, though we may end up just on the northern edge of things

ICON gives me 12.3" this weekend

Rates really plummet when we’re not in one of the bands. Even saw the sun peeking through the clouds for a bit

I know, just showing that the continuing pattern of the US being the cold outlier in the whole world

one of these areas is not like the others

flake size definitely improved over this transient band moving in from the southwest, should hit a lull though for the rest of the afternoon shortly

yes, something wrong with the data flow. https://x.com/CoDWXData/status/1889714294062776541

raods and sidewalks are covered now but the grass is still showing. definitely a bit of a north south gradient in the Madison area

why not, lets roll with the GFS on this one. 12" total with the WAA and then defo a day later

DVN had a pretty funny situation this morning, Winter Storm Warning for 3-5 inches while the Winter Weather Advisory was for 4-6 inches

Interesting evolution. We get hit with the lead shortwave/WAA on Friday and then are shut out the rest of the weekend

4.5” final call. Let’s stack some dendrites tomorrow

12z GFS holding serve with its more southerly path

Going to end with about a half inch here. Ground is mostly white

Update: they haven't posted a video today so not sure if they've considered adding 1899 as an analogue

Have some blowing dust in the farm fields by my house. Pretty unusual for February

BAMwx says a mix of Feb 1985 and Feb 2021. Stay tuned!

NAM and NAM3km always underdo temps in the winter and early spring. Especially in dry weather. They don’t mix the boundary layer enough and seem to overcompensate for snow cover too

starting to see some trends for the month of Feb. People who know more can expand and correct me. There will be some high latitude blocking that will give the Polar Vortex a jolt in about a week. Alongside a -AO/-NAO we will likely get a longwave trough in the E/C US. With increased warmth to the SE there will be storms tracking along the baroclinic zone which should give some chances of snow. The SE ridge will not be very strong though, so I wouldn't expect major storms tracking through our region. What will be likely though is below normal temps from about 2/10-2/24. At this time it's not guaranteed that we will have a SSW or have a split polar vortex, in fact there are signs that the disruption will be short lived and the PV will bounce back to strong levels. This means that the cold and blocking would not be favored to last into the month of March.

Madison tied for the driest January on record with 0.10”. Also the late month warm up got us to +0.2 F over average

See you under the defo band