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madwx

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Everything posted by madwx

  1. madwx
    That’s associated with the old mid level center. I’ll assume the mid and low level centers will focus around 14.3N since that’s where the convection is generating the most PV
  2. madwx
    https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=CWSA&format=decoded&date=&hours=6 Sable Island. Note that there haven't been any new METARs in an hour
  3. madwx
    the cone doesn't get update during the intermediate advisories. just the full ones at 5 and 11
  4. madwx
    Sable Island MSLP down to 978. Sustained winds only around 30 knots though
  5. madwx
    There are some difference between how the GFS and Euro handle upper features beyond 48 hours, but staying around 15 N through tomorrow evening will give credence that a path somewhere between the GFS and Euro into the GOM is correct.
  6. madwx
    the convection is tugging the center of the gyre and it seems to be heading due west now. Will have to keep an eye on how long it stays below 15 degrees. Most of the models hold it around the latitude until Saturday evening.
  7. madwx
    yep, most intense blow up of convection yet on the downshear side of the circulation
  8. madwx
    I'm guessing you mean Hermine? Though with the way things are going in the eastern Atlantic 98L might end up being Ian or even Julia
  9. madwx
    Pretty amazing bust on the CAMs which did not predict the line of storms going through southern wisconsin
  10. madwx
    Along those lines, likely the last time we’ll have dewpoints in the 70s this season in S WI
  11. madwx
    About to depart CLT on a flight back to Madison. Switched to the left side of the plane to hopefully get some nice views of the storms
  12. madwx
    3.09” storm total so far MSN and MKE both broke daily rainfall records yesterday
  13. madwx
    Mesolow
  14. madwx
    Steady rain has started here. Relatives in NW Dane County have already gotten an inch. Makes some of those crazy high totals look reachable
  15. madwx
    NAM, GFS and Euro all now showing over 3" here from tomorrow evening through Monday. NAM even going a little crazy and giving all of Dane county almost 6"
  16. madwx
    Looks like we may be in the bullseye of the heavy rain this weekend. The GFS and Euro both give us over 2". The NAM has been a bit more inconsistent with it's main swath
  17. madwx
    Wildfire smoke finally made it here this year. Tempered highs today just in the lower 80s instead of the expected mid 80s
  18. madwx
    got 1.75" yesterday, most storms have been overperforming with precip recently
  19. madwx
    I’d definitely play
  20. madwx
    yeah, a few days ago it had some places only having highs in the teens in Alaska, has rebounded to showing those same places in the upper 40s to low 50s now
  21. madwx
    Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soon
  22. madwx
    3.05" overnight, well over projections. Brings the August total at my house to 7.97"
  23. madwx
    Gonna get a nice shot of Canadian air after the front this evening. Might have temps down in the upper 40s on Friday morning
  24. madwx
    2.54” since the precip started last night at 11:30. Still raining this morning and will have another round tonight
  25. madwx
    Excited for this. Ready 2 flood
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