jojo762

There we go, SPC pulled the trigger for D7, Tuesday (4/26), mentioning "A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE."

FWIW, OUN already mentioning possibility of strong/severe thunderstorms in their "Next Seven Days" graphic for Sunday/Monday (4/24,4/25). DDC also mentioning possibility of severe wx in their AFD-- pretty rare for WFOs to mention severe that far out.

Agreed... Not to be overly specific given that it is still a week away, but next weekend-- more so sunday than saturday-- has looked pretty interesting for several days now on the GFS across the Central/Southern Plains.

Looks very boring for a while... Of course that could change in a jiffy.

The environment next tuesday across the Eastern plains and Arklatex, into missouri, as depicted on the last few renditions of the GFS is pretty incredible. As far as thermodynamics go, MUCAPE values shoot up to 2000-3500+J/KG, however, there does not appear to be much turning with height, shear wise, but decent speed shear. Biggest question with this would be the strongly veered low level flow, and the fact that the CF does not appear to come through until late tuesday night, before then, there appears to be an ill defined warm front across TX/OK, as well as a somewhat better defined dryline. Lots to be figured out between now and then though, at least is something worth watching.

Man that Groundhog day storm really wipes out the gulf for a while for DP's and high-ThetaE air.

shows an incredible environment in place in S/SE SD and NC/NE Nebraska. 50-70knots of 0-6km shear juxtaposed to MUCAPE of 1000J/KG near the WF to 3000-4000J/KG across the Warm-sector. The environment is especially impressive along the WF in SE/E SD maxed out (500m2/s2) 0-3KM SRH across a large area... Looks as though one issue along the WF could be low-level winds.. Which are kinda meh, AOA 15-20kts along the surface warm front/ theta-E gradient. But further south they increase markedly by 00Z to 40kts at H85 and especially by 03Z to 50kts in C/NC Nebraska... But the LLJ is only slightly south of the front at this point, and this is still several days out so that's only if you take the run verbatim. Another very apparent issue on the soundings is a tremendous cap in place from about 900mb to 700mb, producing CIN around 150J/KG. Nevertheless mid level and upper level winds will not be an issue whatsoever if this were to verify.

00Z GFS definitely doesn't have a significant trough entering the W CONUS... But it does have a pretty significant trough across the far N CONUS (ND/SD/MT) with H5 flow progged at 50-70kts around June 14-15... And this is nearly the exact same scenario as shown by the 18Z GFS, with quite a difference in the 12Z run, and some similarities to the 06Z run... Overall though, the GFS has hinted for a few days at the possibility of some sort of MAJOR trough in mid to late June.

50-70kts of H5 flow over the central plains in early June sounds dreamy...

On a side note, the 12Z GFS develops an odd weak cut-off low around 108hrs over Louisiana. 00Z ECMWF does a similar thing just a day later. Both models just have the feature sitting over LA/the Arklatex for a while seemingly, and don't do anything with it... Also both models are hinting at SW flow beginning in the plains/northern plains toward the end of next week.. Fairly weak trough, but still something..

well, most of the mid/long-range models (GFS/EURO/UKMET/CFS) forecasts point to quite an active upcoming period in about 7-9 days... So really would disregard the GEM...