jojo762

I have Monday-Friday off next week as well, still have some finals on Tuesday and Thursday but those are all in the morning. Looking like an active period, with several impressive days (at least it appears there will be). Surprised by the lack of talk about it.

Also, 12Z op-Euro shows what would appear to be a fairly substantial threat next Tuesday evening across KS/OK, GFS does as well but there is still some disagreement in timing of the S/W and location the better threat area.

**Takes peek at long-range in 00z GFS** Oh my god... It's over 10-days out, so it's frivolous to get into much detail, as the details are obviously nebulous, but needless to say I would NOT be upset if that happened. FWIW, op-GFS has been consistent in showing significant troughing across the plains sometime in the May 17-22 time frame, GEFS/EPS are also consistent in showing mean western troughing leading up to this time-frame, with many GEFS members -- to varying degrees -- showing a significant trough.

I get the feeling we might be able to get some Panhandle magic this coming week. The more SSW orientation of the mid-level flow makes it a little less certain to me though. Not looking like we'll see any "big" days at this point... but severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are still likely on a couple/few days next week across the plains.

Man... Crazy to see the region THIS drought-free. I remember 4-5 years ago when it seemed like the entire plains was covered in extreme drought.

While it is a while out, and a lot will likely change... both the euro and GFS operational runs currently indicate that the cut-off low progged to be over the four-corners region could eject into the plains sometime in the May 11-13 timeframe as a negatively tilted trough... so that's something. Ensembles have been trending toward this type of idea as well. Lots of variables at play and more questions than answers given how far it is out, but this would appear to be our next best shot at meaningful severe potential... enjoy the beautiful weather this coming 7-10 days folks!

I'm amped. On the bright side we'll be getting some pretty nice weather. Grass and weeds are going to grow at ungodly rates because of all the recent rainfall and succeeding sunshine... ):

Looking ahead some... Appears that the next best shot at a trough ejecting into the plains will be in the May 6-11 time frame... EPS/GEFS/GEPS generally agree on showing mean western troughing during this time. Perhaps the more important thing to pay attention to is the evolution of the high-pressure that is progged to develop over the Central/Southern Plains shortly after the current wave(s) kicks out east, as this will have a large impact on what actually happens to any potential troughs and S/Ws.

We were, but that's the nature of Mid/Long-range forecasting... Focusing on the pattern is what's important. We had a big-league trough ejecting into the plains with what the models showed as good moisture return (didn't pan out with the moisture and trough orientation/location). Next week we have several potentially potent shortwaves being progged, with solid moisture return being shown by mid/late week. Which generally lends confidence in increasing chances for severe storms.

Probably not... But there are so many things going against it, most notably the crashing front and the possibility of widespread precip (which will also effect northward extent of the warm front)... Still expect at least a couple tornadic supercells on Friday in S OK/N TX.

Think my attention is starting to turn to late next week. Both the GEFS and EPS generally agree on showing a substantial trough or two across the central united states in the 4/26-28 time-frame.

12Z GFS continues to maintain a significant severe risk from south-central OK southward into northern TX.... current indications from the GFS are for MLCAPE values of 2000-2800J/KG, 0-6KM shear of 60-70kts, and 0-1KM SRH on the order of 300-400m2/s2 across the main threat area by 00Z.

00Z GFS trended a tad further north with the warm front, yet again, and shows an environment conducive to supercells capable of all severe-hazards from south-central Oklahoma southward into north-central Texas. Now within 100 hours of the event, and model variability continues to be prevalent...

Seems like most GEFS members certainly have been keening in on some sort of big-time trough(s) entering the plains sometime in the late April-early may time. Haven't had a Synoptically-obvious big-time severe threat in the plains, that actually turned out to be big, in what seems like forever. Have had several "big" days in recent years, but none were really expected to be as big as they were. 4/14/12 was the last plains tornado-driven high risk, maybe we can change that in the next month and a half...

Certainly is. Have to believe there is at least some potential for multiple days of severe weather during that time frame, perhaps a shot at a big-league day with the final (intense) trough. Notable that this trough on Friday still has a decent amount of potential given its strength, just a few things going against it right now. 18Z GFS was interesting.

Models still generally support severe weather somewhere across the southern plains on Friday. The extent of and location of any potential higher-end threats beyond a slight risk is still TBD.

00Z GFS crashes the front from Wednesday's system much further south than any other run... which keeps the warm front much further south on Friday as well, which would suggest that any higher-end potential would be relegated to NE TX/DFW/red river valley instead of the I-35 corridor. Guess we'll see what the euro says. Still a week or so out, so obviously a lot will change and a lot of details have yet to be decided.

I was shocked honestly given the degree of model spread in location/timing. But outlook area can/will be adjusted as we progress.

SPC already including southern KS and central/eastern OK in a Day-8 outlook for Friday April 21st.

00z and 06z GFS produced some truly ridiculous soundings across Oklahoma on Wednesday... Euro shows something drastically different, so nothing to get too excited about *yet.*

00z GFS continues to be pretty solid for sunday. Hate that the LLJ is WAY veered, but shouldn't matter too much. Solid BL-moisture, strong/moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and more-than-sufficient low-level shear. Best thing though? Storms **should** be discrete per model QPF output. Little concerned that BL and low-level moisture may become a bit displaced from the DL though, owing to the veered low-level flow. Also a little concerned about potential VBV issues, in relation to storm mode.

00Z GFS is incredible for Sunday from southern Oklahoma through central Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

00Z GFS is highly volatile along and east of the I-35 corridor next Thursday in S KS into OK. Both deep-layer and low-level shear are very impressive, instability is more than adequate, and moisture is probably doable, not to mention that it develops numerous what I assume would be discrete supercells along much of the dryline. Not too sold on what the GFS is showing moisture wise though with DPs barely reaching 60 along a lot of the dry line. Guess a lot of that will depend on overnight/previous day moisture transport and how far the boundary earlier in the week dives south. 00Z euro is slower than the GFS and much further west with the DL, but also very impressive from what I can tell... should be a fun ride building up to this... impressive seven days out for a march system.

Excerpt from D4-8 outlook: By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However, predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys.

The fact that the GOM will be open (at least the western half), and that we will we have southerly surface flow for days in advance is exciting... Still way too far out to determine very many details of any potential trough(s) though. Not a big fan of that H85 high that the GFS and Euro are showing over the western and north-central GOM though.