mjwise

The conditions in eastern Iowa in front of this thing are about as good as it gets. The WAA wing was ready to party.

PDS Watch is out. 80-100 MPH gust headline.

Got to 86 here today before a stray storm hit. 91 was the high on Sunday, the only 90 over the weekend timeframe. I hadn't realized UHI was contributing 5+ degrees to Chicago highs on the warmer days. The humidity, though...

86/79/100 at DKB. Could have been worse but for a stray storm earlier in the day. Mostly cloudy too.

I was in Michigan until 2015, then moved to Virginia, now I'm back in this GL region again, so hello. I'm hopeful I can beat the grand total of 3" of snow I got last winter...

Bluefield, Blacksburg, Roanoke, and Danville all posted record low maximums for June 15. Resisting turning the heat back on here. That just feels wrong for mid-June.

If you are under 60 and do not have preexisting health conditions, you are at very low risk from the virus, even if you do contract it. If you are under age 20, we know that flu season is far more dangerous to your health. I have yet to wear a mask anywhere here in southwest Virginia. It's not being enforced or even directly suggested at any store or service provider I have visited. If I end up some place that demands wearing one, I suppose I will, but as an engineer, the idea that nonstandardized, random, contaminated pieces of cloth can appreciably prevent or stop the transmission of a tiny virus is just short of believing in magic beans. I wouldn't pile into an arena with 10,000 other people at this point, but freaking out about an unmasked person at a beach has no rational basis in the data we have.

With Sunday's rain, Roanoke had its 6th wettest 7 day period (5/18-5/24) since 1912 with 10.17" of precipitation. The last week of similar magnitude was in November 1985, and, before that, August 1940.

5.37" four day total here. 9.06" in Roanoke. ETA: This is now the wettest meteorological spring on record in Roanoke, at 18.7" of total precip as of today. New River had its 6th highest crest on record at Radford. 8th highest on the Roanoke River in Roanoke.

Aside from the rain, Blacksburg's high was 48 degrees Wednesday, a new record low maximum for the date. The old record was 50 in 1981.

Those are some 10-inch pixels for 5-day QPF in the WNC mountains...

2.19" in Blacksburg overnight.

Hello neighbor. I was going to say don't get your hopes too high - but then I see Columbia averages all of one snowy day and 1.5 inches of snow a year. I certainly hope we do better than that. This has easily been the hottest summer in SW VA in the four years I've lived here. The past few years were significantly cooler and wetter than this, especially last year - 2018 was Roanoke's wettest year on record.

Blacksburg 4-day storm total (from Thursday night to Monday night) was 4.1"

Wet.

Looks it to my untrained eye, but I'm looking more in VA and during the day on Sunday (watching soundings in BUFKIT) - not focusing on overnight in NC. ETA: Latest HRRR definitely not as warm as 3km nam was earlier. I didn't realize how warm that run was.

Not much forecasting left to do, and the only short range model to watch (HRRR) has been ticking warmer.

Last call from RNK

They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.

Significant left/anti-poleward motion has never been observed with an Atlantic major hurricane at the mid latitudes in the 160+ year historical record either, so there's that too. Even getting to shore is an uncommon achievement for storms at this latitude.

As a reminder, the GFS is uncoupled from the ocean, meaning that a hurricane can sit and spin for an indefinite period and be fed with basically a static, inexhaustible energy source. These GFS runs showing Flo sitting in one place for like 48+ hours are immediately suspect for that reason alone.

I don't think the GFS models cold water upwelling or if it does it doesn't do it very well. Cat 5 comes to a complete halt just east of the OBX and maintains Cat 5 strength for over 48 hours? I don't think so.