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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    I get a severe warned shower with tops below 30k and no lightning. Weird wake low winds or something. Skip. Just give me a real thunderstorm once this year.
  2. frostfern
    zzz…. No good lightning once again.
  3. frostfern
    The cell headed for Muskegon is looking beefier. Wonder if it will acquire rotation if it gets more surface based eventually.
  4. frostfern
    It will fill in once it gets east of me. Watch.
  5. frostfern
    I just hope there is a round 2 on the back side.
  6. frostfern
    I’m catching a whiff of burnt plastic smoke this evening. Ugh.
  7. frostfern
    If there is a late-morning MCS, it could already be severe, but it will be over once it passes. Then the only supercell/tornado threat will be later in the evening where the southern edge of the outflow ends up. If there is no late morning MCS, afternoon cells could form right on the lake breeze. That scenario would be more interesting.
  8. frostfern
    I would take several years of no t-storms IMBY just to see that one event though. I've never even seen a tornado in person (if you don't count waterspouts). I have seen some decent supercells with large hail while chasing in MI, but never saw more than scuddy wall clouds.
  9. frostfern
    The latest models look farther north. Still so hard to predict where something will develop upstream.
  10. frostfern
    Its just 2 chances that will probably be mostly south of me, then back to the forever trough.
  11. frostfern
    I-94 south year.
  12. frostfern
    If it starts looking anything like 6-13 last year I might drive south to watch. It looks really juicy, which can lead to a good light show.
  13. frostfern
    Still waiting for one electrically active storm this summer up here. SE side has done better.
  14. frostfern
    Spoke too soon. Feeling yet another miss south.
  15. frostfern
    Finally a flat-topped ridge pattern with stalled warm front potential north of I-80.
  16. frostfern
    Yea. It’s hard to know the exact cause. I notice in Michigan just 300 feet of elevation will favor one area over another, but those microclimate effects are not as noticeable during organized severe outbreaks as they are with garden variety stuff.
  17. frostfern
    Lake Huron shadow. But you deserve a weenie tag from Texas Man for complaining about climatology.
  18. frostfern
    Its gone now. No idea if it was actually anything.
  19. frostfern
    Something trying to form. No warning yet though.
  20. frostfern
    Looking ominous.
  21. frostfern
    Flint area going to get crushed with straight line winds and supercell mergers.
  22. frostfern
    Getting that supercell look.
  23. frostfern
  24. frostfern
    That notch looks interesting.
  25. frostfern
    I think the best chance of rotation is when the line interacts with any lake breezes later in the afternoon. Problem is the the low level wind is strong so it would probably be over the water. Otherwise the 0-3 km is kinda unidirectional. Thats the only problem though. CAPE and overall shear are impressive.
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