frostfern

The thermodynamic setting is similar but the shear doesn't look quite as good extending to south and east. Derecho's can sometimes be CAPE-driven towards the end of their life-cycle though. The MCS can generate it's own shear via a rear-inflow jet. I'm worried if there's strong dry rear-inflow jet it could re-intensify coming in off the lake like in 1998. Sometimes a very cold Lake Michigan marine layer causes an air-hockey table effect. The rear-inflow can accelerate as it glides over the smooth surface of the marine inversion. It then crashes to the ground when it reaches the shore.

Lake breeze micro-cell on the southeast side of GRR just produced a nice tropical downpour. Only heard one soft rumble so far though. I would like to hear more thunder, but cells are just getting started and are still a bit low topped.

The CAMS are showing northern end of the line now just west of Chicago making it all the way up to GRR. I don't see it producing much lighting as whatever CAPE there is is tall and skinny, but the rain is going to be a problem as instead of moving east the line is supposed to just kind of slowly pivot around the low similar to a tropical rain band. 3-4" rain totals are not needed.

Does the instability actually reach Wisconsin and Michigan? Older runs just looked like a general rain.

I just remember it being kind of cloudy compared to normal. Or maybe I just couldn't enjoy the nice ones.

Based off the latest ECMWF, you may hit the first 80 before me. Maybe not right on the water, but inland certainly. Dumb blocking pattern means the first torch will hit places north and west while areas further south and east have cool northeasterly winds. Western Michigan might eek some mid 70s since we're the farthest from Lake Huron. I'm ready for 80, but I won't complain if it can at least be sunny. Just praying the cutoff doesn't retrograde any more than currently shown. I feel bad for Ohio people though. Really annoying pattern after already dealing with cold blasts the past two weeks.

Didn't get many of them last fall either though. It went from warm and wet to cold and wet. Summer humidity lingered late then winter came early. The transition was pretty abrupt and not very sunny... a lot like spring.

Today feels legitimately warm with full sunshine and light winds even though it's not even 60. Only nice thing about having a horribly cold early May is 60 degrees still feels somewhat good (so long as the sun is out and it isn't too windy). Would be nice to live in a place that gets a solid month or two of this kind of weather rather than just a day or two in transition.

I've never been to the Asian tropics. Costa Rica is kind of interesting with gap-wind patterns and micro-climates.

A death ridge in May sometimes means severe storms up north. May 1998 was hot and stormy in Michigan. WSW as opposed to SSW upper flow is usually better for the Upper Midwest. You need a good westerly component off the rockies in the 850-500 hPa layer to get steeper mid-level lapse rates. Otherwise the best instability is confined to the plains despite good dewpoints (most of May-June 2018). North-South meandering jet is bad whether it's a ridge or a trough. Somewhat zonal but displaced north is the best for anywhere north of I-80.

I think we'd need a major volcanic eruption for that to happen. With the reduced air traffic due to the pandemic, low temperatures on clear nights might be a degree or two colder than otherwise in high-air-traffic regions though... like anywhere in a 300 mile radius of Chicago. Who would have thought air-traffic contrail pollution can protect fruit growers. Of course only passenger flights are affected right now, so it might not be quite as extreme an effect as after 9/11 when all planes were grounded for a short time.

Only years I remember green maple leaves on May 1st are 2010 and 2012. Most years they're open but still have that early-spring reddish hue. This year they were mostly not open at all until the brief warmth hit last Saturday. If you have a lot of Norway maples around you might see more green as those will open early and green. Alder trees also leaf very early and are light green right away. I noticed the early flowers have hung on forever this year. Things have been really spaced out since there was some early warmth followed by cold.

I want to murder the GFS. Next weekend is a horror show on all the models though. Just please let it be the end after that. Thunder weenies are going to suicide if this dumb pattern persists.

It's all virga so far up here. Only felt a sprinkle or two.

Up here in Michigan May 2018 kinda crap. Stuck on the north side of the warm front with constant rain for the first half of the month. Only south of I-80 saw the sun. Overnight lows were mild enough for things to start growing, but it didn't really get nice until the end, and at that point it was summer. Summer started early, but there was no pleasant spring with sunshine and temps in the 70s. Went straight from rain and 50s early to 80s and 90s late. Not that I wouldn't take 80s and humidity over cloudy and 40s and 50s.

What is "mild" anyways? I had one of the worst fevers in my life back in early March, but since I was only bedridden for 3 days and never felt so bad I might die if I don't go to the hospital I couldn't get tested. For COVID-19 it wasn't that bad, but I'm having a lot of trouble believing it was something else because I'm 40 and haven't had influenza since childhood. The symptoms were either influenza or a short COVID-19 case. A positive antibody test would make me feel better. It's still worth it even if false positives are possible. Whatever it was my wife got it exactly a week after me. Both my parents were exposed to us before I realized it might not have been influenza, so I was nervous for a while. My father has heart disease.

I noticed the snowpack in the zone southeast of James Bay has continued to increase over the past month. That might have something to do with this stubborn Eastern US trough pattern. The spring melt has failed to reach the 50th parallel anywhere east of Winnipeg. Zone between 45 and 50 has lost some snowpack, but it's stopped as of now and won't resume for several days. We really need a good torch to knock back the glaciers of Ontario and Quebec. Lengthening days and higher sun angle does no good when it all gets reflected off snow. The Canadian prairies now being snow free and warm only seems to amplify the annoying NW flow and eastern Great Lakes digging.

Every month has been some variation of March or November for the past 5 months.

I think the new semi-permanent northeast Pacific SST warm anomaly has slowed the polar jet and increased the amplification of the climatological Rocky Mountain ridge + Hudson Bay trough. The northern hemisphere has warmed overall, but climatological northwest flow has become more amplified over the eastern North America. This will definitely cause cold springs as long as the north winds are coming off lingering Canadian snowpack.

Is it time I pony up some of my quarantine stimulus check money to watch the 384 hr Euro? Or will that just make me more depressed? I don't understand why the weather gods have to conspire to make 2020 even more hell-year than it already is. Just need a little hope please. I suppose it could be worse. My neighborhood didn't get flattened by a tornado. I mean, I feel bad complaining about the weather of all things but I just need something to look forward to after rona-hell.

Fixed that for anywhere east of Lake Michigan and north of I-80. Also, "winter" = London-style. Cold and damp but no real snow.

There will probably be some thunder over there. The freezing level is real low so graupel will almost certainly make it to the ground. Stronger updrafts may have some small hard hail too. I don't think there will be any thunder in my area but still could see some graupel and gusty winds. This setup reminds me of mountain weather. Dry atmosphere with steep lapse rates and low freezing level.

At temperatures between 0C and -40C you can have either water droplets, snow/ice crystals, or both. It all depends on the type of aerosols present along with the temperature and humidity. At temperatures below freezing the ice crystals are generally much larger than the liquid droplets, so they will slowly fall and separate from the part of the cloud that is liquid droplets.

I just found out the cell I barely got out of the way of did drop 2" hail in Plainwell, Michigan. Looks like I high-tailed north just in time. I did run into a solid line of 60+ dbs in the dark driving north, but the hail thankfully didn't get bigger than dime size.

Chasing was pretty frustrating as elevated cells looking intense over central Lake Michigan heading straight for me weakened as soon as they moved inland. The mesos that finally made it inland over Allegan county were messy and surrounded with rain, plus it was getting dark. The lightning was incredible though. Not a ton of CGs, but very very frequent strobing. Sadly I wasn't able to find a clear distant view of the towers moving away as there was a lot of low cloud / haze in the way every time I checked. August 29 2019 was a better show only because it cleared out very well giving a perfect 25 mile view of the upper parts of the CB towers and anvil-crawlers.