frostfern

The Saturday precip does the classic Great Lakes Split. Northwest Indiana and Southwest Michigan are in the screw zone between better forcing to the north and better moisture to the southwest. The Wednesday cold front is losing strength and is moisture starved by the time it gets down here too. Maybe a random popup before it comes back north as a warm front, but not likely as gulf moisture return is mostly to the west as usual. I'm not counting on any rain until July 1 at the earliest. Doom and gloom man.

Is GRR winding up with less than 1.00" of precip in June a statistic of note? It's sitting at 0.85" as of now.

zzzzzzzzzzz................... Have to wait until sometime around June 30th for even the possibility of anything of note.

It definitely won't pan out to anything here. Rain shields are up. Rock solid screw-zone right over GRR will persist at least until July.

Total doom and gloom for me now. Might finish June with less than an inch of rain for the entire month.

Ban worthy.

It hit 95 here late in the day, even with some lake influence. The heat index is lower than last week though as dews are only in the mid 60s.

I feel like there has to be an inch or two of rain every single week to keep the grass green here. There's a lot of quartz sand here. It gets hot in the sun and doesn't hold moisture. Watering just seems like a waste. It seems like it's just climatology for sunny lawns to go dormant around late June every year... unless there's an unusually wet period (like there was last year).

It is already quite swimmable a lot of places here in the western Lower Peninsula. It depends very much on the wind direction and various local currents though. The swimmable layer is only about 1.5 meters deep, so your feet get cold if you let them drop down. There's definitely an advantage on the east side of Lake Michigan during an early heat wave as southerly winds will cause an onshore current that traps recently generated warmth along the beach. You have to watch out when the wind switches to northerly though as the cold comes up from below almost instantly.

It looks like the front goes through dry tonight. Getting browner ever single day now.

I find this heat + no thunder stuff so boring.

I was woken up by some fairly close lighting strikes around 3:00 AM last night. I think it was thundering for a full hour but somehow only 0.22" fell. I don't know what happened. Screw zoned.

Going into a dry pattern. Ugh.

You'll do fine. Wisconsin always gets thunderstorms. It's just Lake Michigan will be killing everything before it reaches this side. Only supercells and massive severe bows get here. The garden variety stuff always shits the bed over the lake.

It's getting dry on this side of the lake though, as is often the case. MBY missed most of the heavy rain on Monday and the long term isn't looking good at all. Weird thing in Michigan in this kind of pattern is only severe storms are NOT constantly drying out over the lake. In this hot pattern it's hard to get normal old rain without the severe. Hot dry summer incoming. Ugh.

I should have done it probably. Oh well.

That is a mean looking rear-inflow jet. This one might be even worse than the 2020 Iowa one. Don't know how built up the area is. It's more sparse to the west.

Can someone make a new thread for this event? Move my posts to it? I'm not good at this stuff.

Derecho forming... 100 mph rear inflow. Scary.

Looks like a pretty high end straight-line wind event crossed I-90 just north of Lyndon Station. There is even a CC drop on the leading edge of the gust. It definitely did some damage.

It's getting messy now, but there's a major straight-line wind event evolving south of the Union Center circulation.

A fourth meso to the south of the others is now tornado warned too.

The middle one looked to be in the high EF-2 / low EF-3 range for a good stretch after crossing the highway. Probably not photogenic though as there was very heavy rain wrapping around on all sides.

Nasty rain-wrapped tornadoes.

Boo.