OUGrad05

Meh, I don't really see that and global models trending down a little at this point? To be expected I'd say. This is still looking very dangerous.

Monday has a really impressive synoptic presentation. There are always ways we can nit pick and say things aren't going to happen but at this point it appears that there will be tornadoes between the red river north to I-70 in KS. I also have some concerns about how late in the evening/overnight this could go. Right now this looks like a potent system through the overnight hours and possibility of multiple rounds of severe weather still exists. OKC, Tulsa, NW Ark, SW Mo could see issues overnight.

Home from the chase. That stronger then expected cap put a damper on updrafts...

A couple hours left to warm up still...

Yeah I agree, I can't see the update but was commenting to a buddy and put on my FB page I expect an upgrade to 10%. Not sure why I can't see it. Claremore to Joplin to Springfield could have one or two strong tors today, perhaps a touch more with the triple point setting up the way it is. Don't want to hype but this is starting to get very interesting, especially with the better than forecast shear and solid sfc backing along and east of US169

There's still some small but significant differences in the modeling of the SFC low, especially this afternoon between 3 and 6pm. That will have a huge impact on the populations impacted by the storm and the probs of tors. RAP is still showing some damn impressive hodographs over a decent chunk of eastern OK primarily north of 40. The HRRR has a touch more surface veering due to placement to the L and shear isn't quite a good. I haven't chased each model run but since yesterday afternoon the RAP seems to be holding pretty steady with HRRR and NAM drifting that direction a bit.

Agreed sir. Also, as mentioned above SFC backing is higher than was forecast yesterday. Haven't pulled models yet, busy working so I can chase this afternoon but a quick glance at the mesonet has me thinking tor threat may turn out to be a bit higher than the 5% currently forecast.

In OK they appear to be elevated SVR hailers so boundary layer will probably stay intact? Plus its early, sun is out, I'd expect a capping inversion to develop by mid/late morning? If that doesn't occur and we remain uncapped it'll be a convective mess much of the day.

Yeah the RAP yesterday was impressive the NAM was absolute trash. I went to bed before the 00Z was available. I haven't looked at much this morning, just finished my workout and need to knock out a few things for the office then I'll start digging through the models.

Models right now are pretty inconsistent with hodographs and a few other parameters. RAP looks like we'll get an upgrade to 10% tor, NAM looks like an absolute mess with all kinds of VB and lack of flow at 850 and 700. Hopefully we have a better handle on it by in the morning. I definitely think we could get an ENH upgrade, may be for hail but we'll see tomorrow. I also agree could be a sneaky day especially with this sfc low off to the west.

SPC now has an enhanced risk in the Eastern TX Panhandle, Western OK and W/C Kansas and into Central Nebraska. I'm not super impressed with the shear profiles on the GFS at this point, CAPE will be more than adequate to support big hailers. Plenty of time for GFS to come around a bit on the shear. It's adequate no doubt but not great. Euro looks more impressive. Monday and Tuesday of next week look positively crazy.

Good call on Sunday, I'm now onboard with your position that it appears to be further east and not something I'm going to chase.

You may be able to update that avatar pic sir! Take April 14th down and go with something else :) I agree not to get too hung up on any one model run, look at the broader trends. I do think its interesting that you think Sunday could be a lullday. I hope so since I have significant family obligations that day, but I'm not sold that's the case. In fact, I think it has rather high end potential S of I70 and along and east of 35 at this point. Hope you're right in this case sir.

HRRR is pretty good model.

Very big possibility we get shafted...

Surface temps stay pretty warm through sat night, flirting with freezing on saturday during the day.

So do you think this thing hits TUL and OKC or does it go to our south? I'm not sure I agree with you that it's been "easy". Right now OKC and Tulsa have the system laying down a good chunk of snow, I think as you alluded to there now appears to be a good chance it goes south another 50 miles. The guys in OKC and TUL forecasts offices are pretty darn good so if they miss it I wouldn't say it's an "easy" forecast.

There were some hints at slowing yesterday in the models. I won't have time to look and dig in for another hour or so. If it slows down a bit we'll likely have more snow and less sleet/mixed precip. Just taking a guess based on snow totals above, the NWS probably thinks we'll have more mixed precip than the models are currently showing. 850 temps may be a give away they've been off/on warm for various runs on this system.

With GFS lingering at 1 inch that may have the hesitating. There's still some variables to work out on this thing.

I expected NWS to have a winter storm watch up in Tulsa but they don't yet. Must be hanging on for the 00Z data.

You mean Mike Morgan?

That would be my guess especially with the GFS still being "meh"

My bet is on the 00Z tonight sir.

NAM gonna NAM

It is, I lack some faith in the GFS, but also want it to snow, so my objectivity may be compromised