weathafella

I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good. I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z. The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree. While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really. It continues to be very early. Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe.

Yup. EPS is king today in weenieish progs. GEFS was damned good too. GEPS is tossed.

lol...we're heading to ORD on the 8th.

I like that split flow look with the block keeping things under us on the long range GEFS. GEPS was much warmer. Pretty snowy look to me by mid month.

I thought today’s GEFS look decent. Seems to offer multiple chances moving forward.

GGW

End of today’s GEPS:

I dunno....12z GEFS look pretty good out past 300 hours so far. End of the GEPS looked like dogshit to me.

Has the MA ever been snow wise ground zero in a nina? Maybe 1995-96 but that was widespread wealth.

I’m not talking op. However in general it seems that cmc ensembles (GEPS) are on their own right now pending the rest of the 12z suite.

If CMC ensembles today at 12z verify it’s congrats qq omega.

My memory of 1969 is that it was kind of meh. But we had a huge qpf bomb that turned to a driving rainstorm in Boston that probably dumped good snows west of 495. This was around the holiday period.

You win today. No one goes 0 for 365.

I’ve known Ray for 16 years. It’s not a big deal.

Fix your sarcasm meter…

Low blow man. We know each other long enough for you to know my motives. My original premise was that there were some hints. But I was pretty clear that things looked pretty good.

I don’t know what to make of the 18z GEFS.

The 18z op run was pretty wintry. I understand what you’re saying Will. But the orientation is exactly what we have to keep our eye on to ensure it holds. Right now things look good.

We all said that. But that isn’t the point. I thought about what qq said and realized that while not likely, it is plausible. We’ve seen it in the recent past.

It’s a great look..no disputing that. I’m just giving qq the nod for explaining what could go wrong...Will alluded to it. Right now no guidance shows it fortunately but something I keep my eye out for.

What is concerning for winter lovers is the fact that the coldest stays in Siberia. Now even if it hit western Canada it’s ok as long as it doesn’t spill west of the continental divide. If it doesn’t do that cold could spread over Canada and we can cash in as long as the boundary isn’t too far north.

It’s not pure chance. It likely won’t happen that way but it could if things roll in a certain way. There’s risk to this type of pattern. Hopefully it’s low risk.

There are some hints of at least that possibility.

Years I remember with decent November snows: 1997-about 4 inches on the 14th 2002-a few inches Tday weekend 2004-a nice 3-6 around mid month 2012-maybe the 7th? 2018? 6 inches here but slush downtown

He said that in 2014-15 also...lol.