Usually they will. Because the normal NAO has lower heights SE. But if the trough is too far west, the SE ridge pumps up and actually becomes part of the (no longer working) block. This in general rarely happens but it seems to happen this year. The GFS since the upgrade is pretty unstable-I'll give you that-but all the guidance has been unstable-but the GFS has had the wildest swings. The GEFS have actually seemed to be leading the way of late. You hate to see it....