weathafella

No.

It’s pretty warm 925 to 2m.

That is on the table for interior sne but certainly less so for nne.

Given the rest of the guidance regarding end of next week-GFS appears to be a far outlier. So we know it's a SWFE and the only question is how much cold can hold. I know it's very early but this may be a near replica 15 years later. Dumbfounded...

GFS is a snowstorm next weekend. Still trending too....

You had a huge one I imagine because I did. I don’t care about pack-melt it quickly and start again is fine.

BDL 54.8 in 1/2011-solid!

February 2015 killed 2011. I mean BOS recorded 65 inches.

CMC with another crushing around the 15th. Anyone keeping score?

Not for me. 18+ is never anything to poo poo.

I kind of see your point. I got 18+ Boxing Day and I took the dog around midnight up to one of the highest hills. Snow was completely blown off of it despite very heavy falling snow. But blizzards with wind work the landscape like nothing else. It’s spectacular.

Quite the shift on gfs. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. Nothing is stable yet.

They’re open-saw them this past weekend but nice try albeit feeble.

I’m a mean bastard but I’m enjoying the suffering.

It’s going to take a while to flush out the current pattern-up to 2-3 weeks possibly.

Kevin is acting like a jilted lover. “Who cares what he/she thinks/I’m done work with this relationship!”

In upper air and surface but not In results.

Bringing us to near mid month. WTTTE

It’s gonna happen given the fact that I’ll be away.

Usually they will. Because the normal NAO has lower heights SE. But if the trough is too far west, the SE ridge pumps up and actually becomes part of the (no longer working) block. This in general rarely happens but it seems to happen this year. The GFS since the upgrade is pretty unstable-I'll give you that-but all the guidance has been unstable-but the GFS has had the wildest swings. The GEFS have actually seemed to be leading the way of late. You hate to see it....

The block is a block due to high H5 heights. If those heights merge with similar heights in the SE, it kind of encourages a stronger RNA and blocks cold and snow from getting here.

George-get ahold of yourself and try to remember what you've learned from being on these boards for the past 2-3 years. NAO is not be all end all. See last December for proof. GFS has performed better vs euro in recent weeks. Canadian is a shitty model period. qq omega implied the block would hook up with the SE ridge. He was correct in that regard. Eventually the block should orient to actually NOT allow storms to cut west but we're not there obviously. Keep your eye on the western US and hope for ridging. And as ScottN (coastalwx) mentioned a few days ago, orientation of the block in the north atlantic makes a difference.

"Chilled monkey brains..."

It’s fun to watch. Never have I seen models flip back and forth so frequently.

Also as a reminder….it’s December 5th. Almost all years feature 40s for highs, low 30s for lows here in sne.