weathafella

I’m not so sure....it’s still in clown range and some guidance has it colder.

“Here” ftw?

Yeah it’s not strong yet but it’s been on and off on guidance so worth paying attention to.

Signal for a big event 2/6 on the 46 year anniversary of the most impactful winter event in SNE in the 20th century.

I'm resigned to it being so cold I probably won't leave the house Saturday which is our anniversary although I'll probably go for a walk despite the cold "because it's there". Anniversary dinner will be Sunday night in deference to the cold which models are not backing off on yet.

2016 says hi.

Timing in life is everything! Bring some extra Crown!

Fixed

What will probably happen is a widespread 6-12 during garbage time (post 3/15).

Someone find Roy!

Only 92 and change to go!

2012?

Looks like a stab of intense cold followed by Roy showing up in the studio to start warming up?

Not close to this abomination-so far.

Snowfall but also luck. Once you whiff on a good pattern your odds should go down by a lot. Which is why it is so hard to reverse a ratter in February or beyond. Maybe this year but 12z says not so fast…

Sell -40.

Both. It’s hard to get through a season without one and we have the most optimal conditions during that window it seems.

I do think we get a warning event or 2 in the 2/1-5 period. Hopefully this one delivers.

The thing is, of all the winters that finished strongly, show me a total ratter throughout all of January. 2018 had a torchy latter part of February but deep cold and some good snow in December and early January. I can’t bring up any outside of 2006-07 which was a nino.

Hopefully you’re right but the tenor of this season says you’re not. 2/10 bday event?

We’re all patient but we should rightfully be skeptical after waiting 2 months through some nice patterns. Mark, don’t equate your climate to sne. Most ninas treat your area well. Many rat sne but we have good ones too. If I had to guess no one Pike south is getting 25 inches in 6 days this season

Even that is more muted vs 2/1 although that may be a function of it being in deeper clown range.

Seems stronger than the 2/4-5 signal TBH.

Euro delivers end of the run. 46 year anniversary special.

That Vday cold shot in 2016 was a week out modeled as a nice snow event followed by cold. Friday night and Saturday we had snow showers and my daughter and I went to Logan to leave for Nicaragua as I was part of a medical delegation. It was maybe 20 as we left mid day. Finally arriving in Nicaragua I was refreshing my phone a zillion times because I knew the cold was special. I checked with my wife who stayed home and all was well although the dog spent a minimal amount of time outside-just for the purpose of “doing her business “. I was thrilled to have those temperatures and not have to endure them-it was in the mid 70s at 2AM where I was. I returned home a week later to showery wx and 55 degrees. A few days later we had just about the best severe I’ve seen since living here-occurring around 3AM and waking up the whole house. Strangely enough the dog took it in stride. We really miss her!