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weathafella

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Everything posted by weathafella

  1. weathafella
    Lol.....dendrite is the chicken man- Mitch is the mountain man.
  2. weathafella
    Finally! Lighter mornings. Earlier bedtime with model data in an hour earlier. My SADD lasts Labor Day to Halloween and then I’m ok.
  3. weathafella
    Berg is shook...
  4. weathafella
    So many worried weenies...lol A dry pattern in a positive ENSO year is unusual.
  5. weathafella
    Where is the orange?
  6. weathafella
    Everything looks ok to me. Nothing out of the ordinary and most importantly a stormy pattern. Winter comes first to the Midwest? Our turn is coming.
  7. weathafella
    November starts this week so I started the November thread.
  8. weathafella
    First days AOA. Ensembles say cooling and maybe cold after mid month?
  9. weathafella
    Larry thinks winter will be pretty intense after New Years.
  10. weathafella
    During the 80s, Niño years produced ok snow fwiw. The best sign is how active it is. I will feel a lot more optimistic if that high activity continues through November.
  11. weathafella
    Through 10/27: BOS: +0.8 BDL: +1.0 ORH: -1.1 PVD: -0.2
  12. weathafella
    Leo’s back-winter is growing closer!
  13. weathafella
    Per SV, the 10/27 ssta: enso 1: 0.05 enso 1.2: 0.37 enso 2: 0.70 Enso 3.4: 0.55 Ens 4: 0.93 modoki index: 0.65 If we typically experience the effects in 3 months, we’re basically game over for winter.
  14. weathafella
    I think there are examples of not so good winters even with what would appear to guarantee one. And vice versa. It’s hard to have a handle because the least predictable element beyond 2 weeks is the nao. And that could be the difference. Unless we get episodes of transient blocking even less predictable.
  15. weathafella
    If this week working 60 hour week is retirement I’d hate to see what work is... some day...not yet.
  16. weathafella
    How do you run analogs of subsurface without a match to ssta ground truth? I’d want to see that before going forward since it doesn’t matter what subsurface is if it doesn’t translate the same way to the measured ssta.
  17. weathafella
    Lots of limbs down. Heard several bang up against the house. Last big b,ow a few weeks ago took down a large limb bringing down one of the bird feeders and pulling a plank off of the house (now repaired thankfully). El Niño rocks.
  18. weathafella
    Except Boston gets about 80% more snow on average vs NYC.
  19. weathafella
    27 for the low. Starting to get used to it. It’s going to feel infernal when we have a stretch of 60s.
  20. weathafella
    2010-11
  21. weathafella
    And given the not too high heights and fairly pedestrian 850s, any flow off the water could be AOB. Looking at some of the guidance it wouldn’t surprise to see windy southeasters with moist 60+ at times.
  22. weathafella
    That’s why I’m not entirely sold on a sustained above normal pattern. It will relax for sure but mid 50s as climo early November would require some pretty warm temperatures for more than a day or 3.
  23. weathafella
    So Mike-once pit1 is sold, does pit2 become pit1? Inquiring mimes want to know.....
  24. weathafella
    Maybe but slightly bn wouldn’t shock me.
  25. weathafella
    Good post lurker. The so called torch is on the wimpy side and not with much staying power per guidance.
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